CNN is a partisan news channel, let's look at the facts
(Before you say the same for Fox, which is true; it is solely a video of the address that I posted.)
People like Bernie Sanders only has a 14.8% chance of dying from Covid-19. Perhaps higher, since he has a heart condition.
The whole problem with all the projections is that we don't know the "denominator" if you will, the true number of the infected. People who are being tested are in almost all cases, I think, people who were in contact with infected people, or who presented with some sort of illness, even if it was just a cold.
So, I went back over the data in the controlled study in the village near Padova, where 90% of the population was tested. What is surprising to me is the low percent of infected, which was under 5%. If that number was pretty much on par for the Veneto, how could the ICU units be filling up so fast?
Was it that it was a moment frozen in time? If they weren't doing the study, could the number of infected have been exponentially larger over the next two or three days?
Is it because this was a small village, and the larger cities had exponentially larger percentages of the infected?
Was the percent of infected in Lombardia so much greater? There is no question that this has brought their hospitals to the verge of collapse, and they have more ICU units proportionally than the U.S. does.
As I'm sure you know, we have to keep in mind that the issue is not really the absolute number of people who HAVE died, or even what percent of the population has died as of now, or will be seen to have died after lock downs are in place, but what percent of the population WOULD die (and what percent of people over 60 as a subgroup) if there was 100% exposure of the population.
Another factor is, of course, the hospitals, as we've discussed.
One can't look at the number of people who would die of this in an ideal hospital setting. If hospitals can't accommodate a sudden rush of people who need ICU, then, depending, of course, on numbers and capacity, triage is going to have to happen. Piemonte has issued a directive that in those cases, people over 80 are on the bottom of the list. I'm not arguing, but it's horrifying. That's not what we should have to be doing.
The other factor is that all other patients will suffer. Are heart patients, people on dialysis, people who have cancer, going to suffer?
If a cancer patient needs to go into the hospital every week for blood tests, what's going to happen to him or her? Are they going to be getting quality care? On top of everything else, they're going to be exposed, when they really should be quarantined.
Sorry to sound like Cassandra all the time, but when I get anxious, my default position is to research and compute all the possibilities.
