The new paper on the Genomic History of Southeastern Europe by Mathieson et al. identified the first ancient J2b2 sample in Europe. This sample was found in Middle Bronze Age southern Croatia, at Veliki Vanik and dates from 1700-1500 BCE.
It has been proposed by archeologists that the Illyrianisation of the Dinaric Alps took place from 1600 to 1100 BCE, so that fits the time frame.
Two individuals from Veliki Vanik were tested and both possessed about one third of Steppe admixture and a few percents of EHG, the rest being EEF. Both individuals possessed typical Pontic-Caspian Steppe mtDNA (I1a1 and W3a) that could not be anything by Indo-European in origin. A third individual from Late Bronze Age northern Croatia was also tested and belonged to mtDNA HV0a.
This is the first evidence we have of Indo-European lineages in Illyria prior to the Slavic migrations that replaced most of the male lineages by I2a-L147.2 and R1a (Z280 and M458) lineages.
I have proposed for several years that J2b lineages came to Europe as minor Indo-European lineages. This is because both J2b1 and J2b2 are found at relatively high frequencies in the Volga-Ural region today (especially among the Mordvins, Chuvash and Tatars, who otherwise are very different genetically), and because both J2b1-M205 and J2b2a1-L283 have a TMRCA of respectively 5500 ybp and 5900 ybp, which corresponds to the late Khavlynsk period in the Steppe, just before the appearance of Yamna. Deeper clades of J2b2 underwent a major expansion exactly during the Yamna period. J2b2a1 subclades are consistently found at low frequencies (0.5 to 2%) in all places settled by the Indo-Europeans, although its frequency is much higher in Southeast Europe, including the historical region of Illyria (ex-Yugoslavia + Albania).
J2b was obviously not the only Illyrian lineage. I have explained here that the large-scale Yamna migration that reached central and western Europe mostly bypassed the heavily settled Neolithic cultures of 'Old Europe' and followed the Danube until the Hungarian Plain. From there the main branch expanded to Bohemia and Germany, but another branch may have gone south to the Dinaric Alps. It is possible that the branch that colonised Illyria from 1600 BCE were late Steppe migrants from the Volga region, maybe pushed out of the Steppe by the northern R1a tribes of the Srubna cultures (from 2000 BCE). Through a founding effect, J2b2 lineages might have considerably increased its original frequency after reaching Illyria. Nowadays J2b is far more common in the Dinaric Alps than R1b, but it would be unthinkable that R1b lineages weren't also present among the original Illyrians, considering the time frame.
More interestingly, the Dinaric Alps have an unusually high incidence of Y-haplogroup Q1a, especially on the Croatian island of Hvar (6%), which presumably acted as a refuge for the ancient Illyrian population after the Slavic migrations. If the Illyrians originated in the Volga-Ural region, it wouldn't be that surprising to find also Siberian lineages like Q1a, especially since Q1a has been attested in the Khvalynsk culture alongside R1a and R1b in the Samara region. So the origins of the Illyrians may be in a Middle Volga during the Khvalynsk period.
Linguistically not much is known about the Illyrian language. It probably belonged to the Centum branch (linked to R1b-L23) but that is not even clear. If it originated in the Volga region, but was not R1a/Satem, that would explain why it is so different from the West Pontic Italo-Celtic and Germanic branches.
Mycenaean J2b
Additionally, J2b is also found at high frequency in Greece and in regions that used to be part of the ancient Greek world (Ionia, Magna Grecia). However it is almost absent from Crete (where J2a1 lineages are dominant). J2b was also not found among Neolithic Anatolian or European farmers, and is absent from central Anatolia. This suggests that J2b was not associated with the Neolithic Greeks nor with the Minoan civilisation, but may well have come to Greece with the Mycenaeans, who also appear to have been pushed out of the Steppe by the advance of the Srubna culture. That would give us both the Illyrians and the Mycenaeans (and who knows, maybe also the Albanians) as Middle-Late Bronze Age Steppe migrants to the Southeast Europe, in a migration that was particularly rich in J2b lineages from the Middle Volga region. That would explain why it has been so hard to identify R1a or R1b lineages that could be of Illyrian or Mycenaean origin. In fact, the only one that seems possible is R1b-Z2103.
Could the Hittites and Armenians have left the Steppe around the same time as the Illyrians and Mycenaeans?
It might be useful to put all this in the context of two other hotly debated historical migrations: those of the ancient Armenians and the Anatolian branch of IE speakers, including the Hittites. Both make their appearance in Armenia and Anatolia in this fateful period following the Srubna conquest of the Pontic-Caspian Steppe circa 2000 BCE, and like the Illyrians and Mycenaeans really make their entry on the political scene around 1600 BCE. How much of a coincidence is this that these four mysterious branches of Indo-Europeans all appear exactly at the same time out of nowhere? What's more, all four languages are difficult to classify in the IE tree, with Illyrian, Mycenaean Greek and Armenian that display both elements of Centum and Satem.
As for the Anatolian branch, I originally thought that it was among the minority of early Steppe (Sredny Stog) invaders that took political power in some parts of the Balkans (probably Bulgaria) and remained there or in western Anatolia (e.g. Troy) for over 2000 years before really expanding across Anatolia. But since the Hittites suddenly show up around 1600 BCE with chariots, which were not invented until 2000 BCE in the Volga-Ural region, and did not spread fully across the Pontic Steppe (and Central Asia) until 1800 BCE, it is not impossible that that Anatolian branch remained secluded somewhere in or near the Eurasian Steppe until that time. Who knows, they might even have come from the Urals or the Andronovo culture (I know how outlandish that sounds) and came all the way to Anatolia, maybe via Turkmenistan and Iran, or across the Caucasus, rather than via the Balkans. After all, the Hittites are the first Anatolian IE people to appear in the record, and they first showed up in northeast Anatolia, not in western Anatolia. Furthermore, the Lycians and Lydians do not appear in western Anatolia until 1200 BCE, around the time of the demise of the Hittite Empire. So the movement went from east to west, not the other way round.
It has recently been suggested by the Reich team that the Indo-Iranians did not descend from Sintashta (the inventors of the chariot) or Andronovo. This would mean that the R1a-Z93 Indo-Iranian branch originated in northern European Russia (Abashevo or Fatyanovo–Balanovo). These R1a tribes would have expanded south to establish the Srubna culture, pushing the Mycenaeans and Illyrians away to Southeast Europe. Obviously Sintashta and Andronovo were also R1a-dominant cultures, but maybe not Z93. In any case they possessed EEF admixture not found in South Asians today, so there must have been another source of R1a-Z93 for the Indo-Iranian migrations. R1b might have been in Central Asia since the Afanasevo culture (contemporary to Yamna). Successive migrations of R1a from northern Russia (Sintashta and Indo-Iranians) eventually pushed R1b-Z2103 tribes south to Iran, Armenia and Anatolia. However, they would have acquired chariots from them.
If the Anatolian branch originated in Central Asia, they would have belonged to R1b-Z2103 (found in Anatolia), maybe mixed with some R1a-S224 from Sintashta/Andronovo, but also Q1a or Q1b lineages from Central Asia (also present in Anatolia). Because of the later Turkish migrations, it is easy to assume that all Q1a or Q1b in Turkey is of Turkic origin. But some, and especially Q1b1, may have come during the Middle to Late Bronze Age with the Indo-Europeans from Central Asia. Until recently I thought that it was only the Indo-Iranians, but they might have been preceded by others, like the Armenians and the Hittites.
The really interesting thing is that J2b is also found in Central Asia (at least Kazakhstan), Iran, Armenia and eastern Anatolia, as well as in the Indian subcontinent. So there is also a trail leaving from the Volga-Ural region across Central Asia then moving west to Anatolia and east to India. In fact J2b is found all over the Middle East, and apparently most or all of it dates back to the Bronze Age. I am not sure there is any Neolithic J2b* left. It's either J2b1 or J2b2a1. The question is, which IE tribe brought it there besides the Indo-Aryans? The Mitanni? The Armenians? The Hittites?
That's a lot to process and hopefully we will know more from the new paper on West Asia that will be published soon.
It has been proposed by archeologists that the Illyrianisation of the Dinaric Alps took place from 1600 to 1100 BCE, so that fits the time frame.
Two individuals from Veliki Vanik were tested and both possessed about one third of Steppe admixture and a few percents of EHG, the rest being EEF. Both individuals possessed typical Pontic-Caspian Steppe mtDNA (I1a1 and W3a) that could not be anything by Indo-European in origin. A third individual from Late Bronze Age northern Croatia was also tested and belonged to mtDNA HV0a.
This is the first evidence we have of Indo-European lineages in Illyria prior to the Slavic migrations that replaced most of the male lineages by I2a-L147.2 and R1a (Z280 and M458) lineages.
I have proposed for several years that J2b lineages came to Europe as minor Indo-European lineages. This is because both J2b1 and J2b2 are found at relatively high frequencies in the Volga-Ural region today (especially among the Mordvins, Chuvash and Tatars, who otherwise are very different genetically), and because both J2b1-M205 and J2b2a1-L283 have a TMRCA of respectively 5500 ybp and 5900 ybp, which corresponds to the late Khavlynsk period in the Steppe, just before the appearance of Yamna. Deeper clades of J2b2 underwent a major expansion exactly during the Yamna period. J2b2a1 subclades are consistently found at low frequencies (0.5 to 2%) in all places settled by the Indo-Europeans, although its frequency is much higher in Southeast Europe, including the historical region of Illyria (ex-Yugoslavia + Albania).
J2b was obviously not the only Illyrian lineage. I have explained here that the large-scale Yamna migration that reached central and western Europe mostly bypassed the heavily settled Neolithic cultures of 'Old Europe' and followed the Danube until the Hungarian Plain. From there the main branch expanded to Bohemia and Germany, but another branch may have gone south to the Dinaric Alps. It is possible that the branch that colonised Illyria from 1600 BCE were late Steppe migrants from the Volga region, maybe pushed out of the Steppe by the northern R1a tribes of the Srubna cultures (from 2000 BCE). Through a founding effect, J2b2 lineages might have considerably increased its original frequency after reaching Illyria. Nowadays J2b is far more common in the Dinaric Alps than R1b, but it would be unthinkable that R1b lineages weren't also present among the original Illyrians, considering the time frame.
More interestingly, the Dinaric Alps have an unusually high incidence of Y-haplogroup Q1a, especially on the Croatian island of Hvar (6%), which presumably acted as a refuge for the ancient Illyrian population after the Slavic migrations. If the Illyrians originated in the Volga-Ural region, it wouldn't be that surprising to find also Siberian lineages like Q1a, especially since Q1a has been attested in the Khvalynsk culture alongside R1a and R1b in the Samara region. So the origins of the Illyrians may be in a Middle Volga during the Khvalynsk period.
Linguistically not much is known about the Illyrian language. It probably belonged to the Centum branch (linked to R1b-L23) but that is not even clear. If it originated in the Volga region, but was not R1a/Satem, that would explain why it is so different from the West Pontic Italo-Celtic and Germanic branches.
Mycenaean J2b
Additionally, J2b is also found at high frequency in Greece and in regions that used to be part of the ancient Greek world (Ionia, Magna Grecia). However it is almost absent from Crete (where J2a1 lineages are dominant). J2b was also not found among Neolithic Anatolian or European farmers, and is absent from central Anatolia. This suggests that J2b was not associated with the Neolithic Greeks nor with the Minoan civilisation, but may well have come to Greece with the Mycenaeans, who also appear to have been pushed out of the Steppe by the advance of the Srubna culture. That would give us both the Illyrians and the Mycenaeans (and who knows, maybe also the Albanians) as Middle-Late Bronze Age Steppe migrants to the Southeast Europe, in a migration that was particularly rich in J2b lineages from the Middle Volga region. That would explain why it has been so hard to identify R1a or R1b lineages that could be of Illyrian or Mycenaean origin. In fact, the only one that seems possible is R1b-Z2103.
Could the Hittites and Armenians have left the Steppe around the same time as the Illyrians and Mycenaeans?
It might be useful to put all this in the context of two other hotly debated historical migrations: those of the ancient Armenians and the Anatolian branch of IE speakers, including the Hittites. Both make their appearance in Armenia and Anatolia in this fateful period following the Srubna conquest of the Pontic-Caspian Steppe circa 2000 BCE, and like the Illyrians and Mycenaeans really make their entry on the political scene around 1600 BCE. How much of a coincidence is this that these four mysterious branches of Indo-Europeans all appear exactly at the same time out of nowhere? What's more, all four languages are difficult to classify in the IE tree, with Illyrian, Mycenaean Greek and Armenian that display both elements of Centum and Satem.
As for the Anatolian branch, I originally thought that it was among the minority of early Steppe (Sredny Stog) invaders that took political power in some parts of the Balkans (probably Bulgaria) and remained there or in western Anatolia (e.g. Troy) for over 2000 years before really expanding across Anatolia. But since the Hittites suddenly show up around 1600 BCE with chariots, which were not invented until 2000 BCE in the Volga-Ural region, and did not spread fully across the Pontic Steppe (and Central Asia) until 1800 BCE, it is not impossible that that Anatolian branch remained secluded somewhere in or near the Eurasian Steppe until that time. Who knows, they might even have come from the Urals or the Andronovo culture (I know how outlandish that sounds) and came all the way to Anatolia, maybe via Turkmenistan and Iran, or across the Caucasus, rather than via the Balkans. After all, the Hittites are the first Anatolian IE people to appear in the record, and they first showed up in northeast Anatolia, not in western Anatolia. Furthermore, the Lycians and Lydians do not appear in western Anatolia until 1200 BCE, around the time of the demise of the Hittite Empire. So the movement went from east to west, not the other way round.
It has recently been suggested by the Reich team that the Indo-Iranians did not descend from Sintashta (the inventors of the chariot) or Andronovo. This would mean that the R1a-Z93 Indo-Iranian branch originated in northern European Russia (Abashevo or Fatyanovo–Balanovo). These R1a tribes would have expanded south to establish the Srubna culture, pushing the Mycenaeans and Illyrians away to Southeast Europe. Obviously Sintashta and Andronovo were also R1a-dominant cultures, but maybe not Z93. In any case they possessed EEF admixture not found in South Asians today, so there must have been another source of R1a-Z93 for the Indo-Iranian migrations. R1b might have been in Central Asia since the Afanasevo culture (contemporary to Yamna). Successive migrations of R1a from northern Russia (Sintashta and Indo-Iranians) eventually pushed R1b-Z2103 tribes south to Iran, Armenia and Anatolia. However, they would have acquired chariots from them.
If the Anatolian branch originated in Central Asia, they would have belonged to R1b-Z2103 (found in Anatolia), maybe mixed with some R1a-S224 from Sintashta/Andronovo, but also Q1a or Q1b lineages from Central Asia (also present in Anatolia). Because of the later Turkish migrations, it is easy to assume that all Q1a or Q1b in Turkey is of Turkic origin. But some, and especially Q1b1, may have come during the Middle to Late Bronze Age with the Indo-Europeans from Central Asia. Until recently I thought that it was only the Indo-Iranians, but they might have been preceded by others, like the Armenians and the Hittites.
The really interesting thing is that J2b is also found in Central Asia (at least Kazakhstan), Iran, Armenia and eastern Anatolia, as well as in the Indian subcontinent. So there is also a trail leaving from the Volga-Ural region across Central Asia then moving west to Anatolia and east to India. In fact J2b is found all over the Middle East, and apparently most or all of it dates back to the Bronze Age. I am not sure there is any Neolithic J2b* left. It's either J2b1 or J2b2a1. The question is, which IE tribe brought it there besides the Indo-Aryans? The Mitanni? The Armenians? The Hittites?
That's a lot to process and hopefully we will know more from the new paper on West Asia that will be published soon.
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