Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
That was the rhetorical question I think I went out of my way to help you understand. Here to make it plain for you, you don't!The real question is how would you model north Italians as Nausius and Slavic, your parameters are stretched to produce comical results.
I am not sure what your models having a cline (all models do lol) have anything to do with this. And yes you can model Albanians with Illyrian + Slavic as did Lazaridis and even Olade and the Serbian academy did, whether you like it or not. Also enlighten me how is my model forced? I literally even removed all the unnecessary fluff from the Olade tail, the tail literally works with just 17 populations. This is the tail I had on hand and had to force nothing. Meanwhile to make your test work you had to adjust your tail for 2 days? With 24 populations, now that is forcing and overfitting a model my friend. You are going based on the result you "want" to find, and over fitting the model till it passes.Those parameters also model you as Illyrian plus Slavic, while my models are always within cline. This does show that qpdam is nowhere near full proof. Your Illyrian model is forced.
You did not?I did not claim Estonia_BA is Slavic., show me where I stated that. It has the Slavic drift, this was well known and discussed in Anthrogenica, where your favorite, Brumziu tried hard to argue against it, against some top-notch northern Slav who knew his stuff.
How did I stretch my model when you had to add 24 populations to your tail mate? Your tail has plain, .DG, .SG, single sample populations, aggregates and anything you can find. I went with Olade labels, and just cleaned up their tail per https://academic.oup.com/genetics/article/217/4/iyaa045/6070149And don't be condescending, take a look at your model, you stretched out the weights to produce unrealistic results.
My Slavic mdv values are better than yours. You know there are some unmixed Slavic samples among the Vikings samples right? Did you know that mr. research?
Hmm, I wonder where we could find a population like that... Lacking any sort of Slavic, and rich in Albania_BA_IA + Eastern / AnatolianJust like G25, qpdam can be used as metal detector, and nothing else. The only way to truly prove it, is to have relevant samples every 500 years, where you go by the best fitting model. Such ideal dataset will not be available for the meantime.
The issue with qpdam is that it has hick ups when there is shared drift. In reality, the Alb parent population was largely IA but still had acquired some MENA admixture. And the additional MENA that came from Byzantine period had acquired some steppe admixture. These two proxies are problematic, qpdam wants to work with cleaner coordinates, that's why EST_BA passes, while Slavic_mdv fails, not because EST_BA is the real Slavic, but qpdam likes proxies with distances/distinction. My models are not non-sense. I kept my parameters free of bias.
For Qpdam to work the way you want it. You will need to find the parent Alb population mixed with MENA before Salvic admixture occured. With the current samples, I say good luck with that. And it's frankly never going to happen, because some MENA admixture occured before Slavs, and later it came with Balkan Slavs. You will not get the recontruction/model you desire, because of how the vriables were formed.
You should try modeling kenete and shtike seperately, as they are not the same.
Baltic_BA was used as a Slavic drift proxy, you do not get that? You think my master plan was to show low Slavic admixture?
Salvic drift using EST_BA average in G25
Try mine.
right = c('Cameroon_SMA', 'Czech_Vestonice16', 'Belgium_UP_GoyetQ116_1', 'Russia_West_Siberia_HG', 'Serbia_IronGates_Mesolithic', 'Karitiana.DG', 'Papuan.DG', 'Armenia_LBA.SG', 'Iran_GanjDareh_N', 'Turkey_Epipaleolithic', 'Morocco_LN.SG', 'Cyprus_C', 'Russia_Boisman_MN', 'Romania_C_Bodrogkeresztur', 'Croatia_EIA', 'Netherlands_EIA', 'Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya', 'Czech_CordedWare', 'Lithuania_EMN_Narva', 'Turkey_Arslantepe_LateC', 'Israel_C', 'Iraq_PPNA', 'Lebanon_ERoman.SG', 'ONG.SG')
Your tail is out of whack. If it's what the Serbian team produced, it is junk, 30+ full-time researchers were devoted to that. The so called scientists.
I based mine through trial and error of two long days.
That was the rhetorical question I think I went out of my way to help you understand. Here to make it plain for you, you don't!
I am not sure what your models having a cline (all models do lol) have anything to do with this. And yes you can model Albanians with Illyrian + Slavic as did Lazaridis and even Olade and the Serbian academy did, whether you like it or not. Also enlighten me how is my model forced? I literally even removed all the unnecessary fluff from the Olade tail, the tail literally works with just 17 populations. This is the tail I had on hand and had to force nothing. Meanwhile to make your test work you had to adjust your tail for 2 days? With 24 populations, now that is forcing and overfitting a model my friend. You are going based on the result you "want" to find, and over fitting the model till it passes.
You did not?
But either way, how are Baltic BA better proxies for Slavs when not only they lived thousands of years ahead of the Slavs, but outside of being connected to each other due to Baltic BA which contributed to the Baltic drift in Slavs, with the additional steppe they had creating the Balto-Slavic artifact, then samples like Czech_EarlySlav (nomenclature by Reich himself) or Av2, which we know for a fact lived at the very early stages of Slavic (proper) ethogenesis and shared early Slavic cultural complexes?
Hmm, I wonder where we could find a population like that... Lacking any sort of Slavic, and rich in Albania_BA_IA + Eastern / Anatolian
Did you even read the models I shared with you? With your own "proxies" lol.
How is your model stretched to get the reconstruction I desire when you "literally" came up with this garbage?
If I was to do it, it would look something like this.
Let me guess, you think any of the aggregate samples you use in any model are going to be the same?
Bet you were sweating.
My tail removed stuff that were there for fluff, Spain IA etc, which did little as far as improving the fit.
How did I stretch my model when you had to add 24 populations to your tail mate? Your tail has plain, .DG, .SG, single sample populations,
Point here is while the Late Antiquity Naisus sample could be viable for all we know, but this is not the way to test it. Where would you find Satsurblia like unadmixed profile in Late Antiquity Balkans?
Very viable graph Jov.I made this
View attachment 14925
1)Here I just dropped the Netherlands_MBA_IA and Iberia_IA since for Balkan pops they are irrelevant historically but also add nothing to the tail, if anything they made the analysis worse.
2)I changed the CroatiaMLBA_SloveniaIA (aggregate constructed by the authors, God knows by what logic, but they even came up with worse~ CroatiaSerbia_RomanAnatolian, LOL) cause it represents a ghost population, an aggregate of different profiles that neither lived at the same time neither share a profile, instead added whatever was left of Croatia_Cetina.
3)I added Ukraine_EBA_Yamnaya and Suddan Early Christian (part of the pre print 2 years ago), because it dramatically improved the tail (Ukraine_EBA_Yamnaya less so, but still substantial).
That concludes the "general", all purpose tail. The final change is per the practices recommended by the Patterson paper on qpADM on how to construct a tail for a given experiment.
4)Thus, I added Czech_IA_Hallstatt and Czech_Early Slav as the population variably related to the Avar_Slavic component of the test compared to the Albanian Medieval component. And Albania_BA_IA and Bulgaria_IA as the population variably related to Albanian Medieval compared to the Avar_Slavic component of the test.
Compare:
right = c("OldAfrica", "Steppe_BA", "EHG", "Iron_Gates_HG", "Anatolia_N", "Ukraine_EBA_Yamnaya", "Sudan_EarlyChristian", "Kazakhstan_EarlySarmatian","Czech_EarlySlav_660-770",
"Iran_N", "Greece_Minoan","Croatia_MBA_Cetina", "Czech_IA_Hallstatt", "Bulgaria_IA","Albania_BA_IA",
"Steppe_IA","SoutheastTurkey_MLBA", "Baltic_BA")
BSD,0.139782,0.1522635,0.124916,0.0901845,0.1006165,0.0314615,0.0163085,0.0316,0.0371455,-0.004572,0.0012435,-0.0218345,0.039901,0.0662735,-0.0386175,-0.0082235,0.002497,0.0084965,0.00349,0.005984,0.009297,-0.003105,-0.0082725,-0.0721915,0.005406
EEF,0.116187154,0.182560923,0.003249077,-0.099981231,0.050991615,-0.048119308,-0.003850385,-0.007774846,0.040007923,0.082146538,0.008793923,0.011436077,-0.023797077,6.35385E-05,-0.044860692,-0.010321692,0.024121077,-0.000838154,0.011564154,-0.009398769,-0.015597385,0.006078,-0.004531692,-0.004096846,-0.005775538
WHG,0.130612,0.1112005,0.192897,0.20001875,0.14579625,0.056824,0.01562825,0.03432525,0.081912,-0.00350825,-0.01221975,-0.0175345,0.0237115,-0.00158275,0.047638,0.0614885,0.001532,0.0066195,-0.006128,0.054776,0.0923685,0.010696,-0.0403635,-0.1486655,0.01676475
EHG,0.122929,0.032496667,0.129980667,0.209843333,-0.010668667,0.056800333,-0.019036,-0.023921667,-0.002318,-0.086683333,0.017646,-0.018783333,0.033399,-0.038855667,0.018729,0.029258333,-0.014299,0.003040667,-0.003854667,0.012214,-0.007029333,0.015951,0.010558,-0.020886667,-0.009101
CHG,0.084229,0.1045995,-0.0914515,-0.003876,-0.089863,0.019662,0.0210335,-0.0036925,-0.129975,-0.076995,-0.0051965,0.02248,-0.049058,0.002133,0.029044,-0.0241975,0.029141,-0.0064615,-0.0189175,0.037768,0.0343145,-0.0069245,0.003266,-0.020846,-0.0006585
IRAN,0.045339667,0.065332333,-0.1523565,0.008021167,-0.1233565,0.026913,0.0137875,0.000846167,-0.081639,-0.056797,-0.003545333,-0.0004995,0.0043855,-0.008876833,0.0327765,0.054472333,-0.005346,0.005764333,0.013721833,-0.033578667,0.006883667,-0.029202667,-0.008771333,-0.0370135,0.0206965
SIBERIA-S,0.0665865,-0.221893,0.090886,0.088179,-0.0947865,-0.004602,-0.0300815,-0.031268,-0.0165665,-0.040274,0.0039785,-0.015586,0.0173185,-0.0526405,0.0051575,0.0027845,-0.004498,-0.007791,-0.001634,0.006816,-0.0295105,0.0115,0.01177,0.008977,-0.0222735
SIBERIA-W,0.0839445,-0.136081,0.0832495,0.15108425,-0.090863,0.02767975,-0.048882,-0.047998,-0.02684375,-0.06496725,0.0302855,-0.00588225,0.0239715,-0.0568725,0.01543825,0.0115355,-0.0144725,0.00272375,0.00399075,0.006128,-0.0354685,0.00995425,0.01996625,0.004097,-0.00805325
AMUR,0.019729333,-0.450895,0.079824,-0.055986667,-0.050060667,-0.045366333,0.013709333,0.010461,0.007294667,0.015004,-0.047092333,0.001698333,0.002329,0.017386667,-0.000724,-0.005303667,-0.005041667,0.000718,0.008966333,0.019967667,-0.00104,-0.026338333,-0.021280667,-0.003253333,-0.019958333
LEVANT,0.0685785,0.17289375,-0.027341,-0.14333225,0.028082,-0.064633,-0.01721475,-0.01407625,0.08094025,0.03603725,0.012504,-0.01618575,0.0353815,0.000688,-0.01347025,0.002917,0.00440025,-0.00456075,-0.006976,0.01572625,-0.00414875,0.005317,-0.002311,-0.00478975,-0.001946
MOROCCO,-0.189857,0.0812424,-0.0233816,-0.085918,0.026897,-0.0562244,-0.0688578,0.0189222,0.1556838,0.0023324,0.0228318,-0.0328806,0.0757278,-0.0494342,0.0694074,-0.035799,0.007719,-0.0649408,-0.1416618,0.0393438,-0.037908,-0.1254826,0.0707936,-0.0144358,0.0191596
CHINA,0.01935,-0.442263,0.0126335,-0.0560405,0.043854,0.0105975,0.003995,-0.000692,0.000102,0.0071075,-0.092724,-0.0129635,0.012859,-0.005849,-0.0065825,0.0005965,0.0022815,-0.00152,-0.002577,-0.005878,0.012041,0.01558,0.0156525,-0.000181,0.006227
INDOCHINA,-0.0034145,-0.334617,-0.0708985,-0.0040375,0.1024805,0.0292835,-0.00893,0.000577,0.015237,-0.006652,0.043601,0.007568,-0.0066895,-0.011216,-0.0050895,0.004243,0.005802,0.0020905,-0.0079815,0.0005,0.0043675,0.0072335,-0.002773,-0.0092785,0.0054485
ASIAN-PACIFIC,0.009675,-0.4087505,-0.0511,-0.0363375,0.1120205,0.040997,-0.00329,-0.00773,-0.009408,-0.0088385,0.0369435,0.002623,-0.0068385,0.0028905,0.007736,0.0082205,0.0024775,0.004434,0.0016345,-0.0116305,0.003743,-0.013911,0.0036975,-0.0134355,-0.0332905
INDIA,0.034147,-0.081242,-0.179887,0.122741,-0.096941,0.068886,0.00094,0.006923,0.035383,0.020228,-0.005034,0.004946,-0.006838,0.007019,0.002172,0.004375,0.007041,0.007348,-0.001383,0.00025,0.004367,-0.008779,-0.000863,-0.001566,-0.007065
SOUTHEAST-ASIA,-0.0381305,-0.216308,-0.1384035,0.1313,0.056626,-0.089942,-0.004935,0.004961,0.037837,0.016219,0.0107175,0.000075,-0.001561,0.0012385,-0.000407,-0.002188,0.0021515,0.0001265,-0.004462,0.0194465,0.0074245,0.0075425,-0.007703,0.0013255,-0.002455
WEST-AFRICA,-0.6038315,0.0573775,0.0139535,0.0272935,-0.00277,0.0027885,0.1236155,-0.0956495,0.0122715,-0.005285,-0.001299,-0.0219555,-0.021184,-0.0037845,0.0023075,0.0005965,0.011278,0.0184965,-0.003331,-0.001876,-0.0028075,0.000618,-0.000801,-0.00241,-0.0034725
EAST-AFRICA,-0.548058,0.051792,0.011125,0.0172805,0.001077,-0.001952,0.143709,-0.1073035,0.0579825,-0.037085,-0.003654,-0.0200075,-0.023563,-0.003303,0.0158795,-0.0101435,0.028489,0.1040115,-0.0267735,-0.0056275,-0.012166,0.0033385,0.001787,-0.004579,-0.0028735
SOUTH-AMERICA,0.050113583,-0.311090528,0.120835611,0.096469333,-0.111858417,-0.019909778,-0.288521306,-0.344466306,-0.010714917,-0.014796444,0.000320361,-0.002056472,-0.001238944,0.02309375,-0.007886694,0.004990528,0.005255028,-0.000355306,0.005474806,0.00577025,-0.001382944,0.004994139,0.000034361,-0.000796556,-0.001284111
CENTRAL-AMERICA,0.04467525,-0.317353,0.1119105,0.09197425,-0.11640625,-0.0169425,-0.2842455,-0.3302745,-0.00869225,-0.014761,-0.00024375,-0.0058075,0,0.02373975,-0.00257875,0.00477325,0.0079535,0.00072825,0.00339375,0.0005315,-0.0020275,0.012087,-0.00221875,-0.000512,-0.00302375
NORTH-AMERICA,0.047426333,-0.307367,0.115273333,0.090655333,-0.104327,-0.015431667,-0.254438333,-0.302141,-0.011658,-0.020228333,0.000541667,-0.00005,0.000099,0.013991667,-0.009862333,0.008486,0.005519333,0.003251667,0.004315333,0.004627667,0.003494,-0.002473,-0.003861667,0.002972,-0.000678667
CANADA,0.052928,-0.3234465,0.1071025,0.080427,-0.1029425,-0.0170125,-0.195294,-0.2371055,-0.005011,-0.016219,-0.004547,0.0020235,0.000223,-0.005161,-0.0077365,-0.003845,0.0009775,0.003674,0.006222,0.0113805,0.0024955,-0.0061825,0.0067785,0.0063865,0.0055085
AUSTRALIA,-0.042115,-0.224432,-0.205154,0.215442,0.145566,-0.322398,-0.007285,0.014538,-0.000818,0.003098,-0.004872,-0.002248,0.004311,-0.001239,-0.008415,-0.000796,0.004694,-0.001774,-0.01169,-0.003377,0.003369,-0.006801,-0.000863,-0.001928,-0.00946
YAMNAYA,0.125837778,0.089253889,0.042907889,0.115455556,-0.027868444,0.044684556,0.004491111,-0.002948667,-0.054857889,-0.072995667,0.001858333,0.000349667,-0.001651778,-0.023609889,0.037262889,0.015734,1.11111E-07,-0.001478,-0.001704,0.012505889,-0.003119667,0.001374,0.011229222,0.018436222,-0.004523667
Try comparing contemporary Slavic sources for proto Albanians. Also check again, the two Alb_mdv samples are not from the 1600s, they are 770-960, right about the time of the first Kingdom of Arber...
Continuation of my previous post.
....
Models as expected start working much better, hypothetically a better ratio, as well as better standard errors than previously. Contemporary sources, all files on the tail same sequencing (no: noUDG, SG, DG etc). But the only problem is that they still do not work. Maybe the Balkan_Slav_661-1121 proxy is actually not the best proxy we have. Lets test again with the Avar_Slavic_540-640, which per Ph2ter (very knolwedgable of early Slavic history) is the best proxy we yet have.
Much better proxy overall, can model multiple Albanian proxies from Modern Era to current... But still none of the models pass.
The question is, did this pots come with people.Objects from a vast area covering nearby regions the entire Byzantine Empire, the northern Balkans and Hungary and sea routes from Sicily to Crimea were found in Dalmace and other sites coming from many different production centres: local, Byzantine, Sicilian, Avar-Slavic, Hungarian, Crimean and even possibly Merovingian and Carolingian.
Plenty of scholars have connected the treasures of Vrap and Ersekë in Albania to the Avars. Some even argued the proto-Albanians came from the Sermesians led by Kuber.Since I ran this I got in touch with a few people with a History background. They were as surprised as me. We know the Avars were big players during the period between 600 till their demise in the late 800s. They did have connections to cities like Timacum Minus, Viminacium, even Singidinum. But we are not aware of them ever settling in Albania. But then again this a period of Byzantine history where sources are very scarce. Although Komani-Kruja seems to have had attested trading links to Hungary:
The question is, did this pots come with people.
Interesting. In fact I recalled your quote a couple of years ago about "asiatic" skulls in Komani, when I saw these results. But the interesting thing is that with the little time I had to further test during the week, it was very hard to model this 13% Avaric component in Albanians with any Slavic. And even when I tried modeling Hungary_EarlyAvar itself with Slavic component in it, or better yet, with *anything* the models failed. Ph2ter told me that these Avars were pretty much East Asian, IA or EMA Mongolian like per his G25.Plenty of scholars have connected the treasures of Vrap and Ersekë in Albania to the Avars. Some even argued the proto-Albanians came from the Sermesians led by Kuber.
The best proxy for Slavic I think still is Av2 sample.
Early Avars came from the Far East. Autosomally they are Mongolian.
makes a lot of sense.Plenty of scholars have connected the treasures of Vrap and Ersekë in Albania to the Avars.
Some even argued the proto-Albanians came from the Sermesians led by Kuber.
Yes the asiatic skulls in koman were classified as avars by Bowden and Buchet, as they had avar goods.Interesting. In fact I recalled your quote a couple of years ago about "asiatic" skulls in Komani, when I saw these results. But the interesting thing is that with the little time I had to further test during the week, it was very hard to model this 13% Avaric component in Albanians with any Slavic. And even when I tried modeling Hungary_EarlyAvar itself with Slavic component in it, or better yet, with *anything* the models failed. Ph2ter told me that these Avars were pretty much East Asian, IA or EMA Mongolian like per his G25.
Ph2ter:
And while I could confirm his first statement. His second statement I was unable to confirm (lack of time, did not try many models, plus my knowledge of steppe history is too weak to construct proper qpADM models).
Based on the models currently this
makes a lot of sense.
This not so much:
But overall this *could* imply that the Slavic / Eastern admixture in Albanians did not generally or initially admix into early Albanians from a Balkan_Slav_661-1121 like profile, but rather an Avar profile.
Later on though, as is the case with my raw data, and some others I have access to, for some both are required. But from the runs I did this was only the case for Albanians deriving ancestry from South-East Albania and regions bordering Montenegro, with are known to have had Slavic settlements/toponyms. While Hungary_EarlyAvar was the case for everyone.
Was it 3/25 skulls or am I misremembering? Cause coincidentally 3/25 = .12... Which is also the ratio we get for Avaric in the models lol. But this is just fun trivia. Doubt anything can be construed.Yes the asiatic skulls in koman were classified as avars by Bowden and Buchet, as they had avar goods.
KuberKuber[3] (also Kouber or Kuver) was a Bulgar leader who, according to the Miracles of Saint Demetrius, liberated a mixed Bulgar and Byzantine Christian population in the 670s, whose ancestors had been transferred from the Eastern Roman Empire to the Syrmia region in Pannonia by the Avars 60 years earlier.[4][5] According to a scholarly theory, he was a son of Kubrat, brother of Khan Asparukh and member of the Dulo clan.
Glad you caught your error. Overall similar issues to earlier. You can get it to work for one pop but it will fail for other related pops.I looked into the Bulgarian model problem. I tried many directions until it dawned on me, what the G25 is hinting is correct.
The mdv Bulgarian has Slavic-Illyrian mix component. This on the surface seems laughable but in the 800s, the Bulgars ruled almost half of the Balkans, including half of Hungary, where many Balkan natives were resettled by the Avars.
Let me demonstrate.
The model almost works with Kenete alone. With Shtike it is not even close. You know who else carries the Slavic to Illyrian component in 2 to 1 ratio as shown in the G25? The medieval Docleans.
I think it should become obvious by now that Kenete is half Kruja Komani, half Byzantine from Turkey. And the only reason he adds value into modeling Albanians is because of his partial Illyrian and partial MENA component which Albanians carry a minor substrate of both.
Also I tested out Av2, my Slavic proxy is noticeably better, models have tighter se and better p-value.
This thread has been viewed 5715 times.