Let's assume that in Early/Mid Iron Age all Iberians looked genetically like today's Basques. The question is what genetic/migratory events produced today's Spaniards and Portuguese?
I played with numbers for some time yesterday and this is the closest model I came with. It has a big chance to be right based on known historical events.
There are 3 components:
1. Early/Mid Iron Age Iberian/Basque like - 60%
2. Modern South Italian/ Core of Roman Empire proxy - 30%. Possible genetic contribution of Roman Empire to Romanization of Iberian peninsula.
3. Modern North German/ Germanic tribes proxy - 10%. Possible genetic contribution of Germanic Tribes, the Visigoths, Suevi and Vandals.
4. Fourth column are the calculated values for hypothetical modeled Iberian.
5. Last column is for real life average Spaniard.
As we can see the last two columns are very similar giving validity to the model.
| 0.6 | | | 0.3 | | | 0.1 | | | | | | |
Iron Age proxy | | Average | | | | | | Modeled | | | Modern | | |
Basque | | | Italy, South | | North German | | Spanish | | | Spanish | | | |
Run time | | | Total run time | - | | Run time | | | Run time | | | Run Time | |
S-Indian | - | | S-Indian | - | | S-Indian | - | | S-Indian | - | | S-Indian | 1 |
Baloch | 7 | | Baloch | 8 | | Baloch | 9 | | Baloch | 7 | | Baloch | 6 |
Caucasian | 4 | | Caucasian | 32 | | Caucasian | 8 | | Caucasian | 13 | | Caucasian | 14 |
NE-Euro | 34 | | NE-Euro | 17 | | NE-Euro | 53 | | NE-Euro | 31 | | NE-Euro | 32 |
SE-Asian | - | | SE-Asian | - | | SE-Asian | - | | SE-Asian | - | | SE-Asian | - |
Siberian | - | | Siberian | - | | Siberian | - | | Siberian | - | | Siberian | - |
NE-Asian | - | | NE-Asian | - | | NE-Asian | - | | NE-Asian | - | | NE-Asian | - |
Papuan | - | | Papuan | - | | Papuan | - | | Papuan | - | | Papuan | - |
American | 0 | | American | 0 | | American | - | | American | 0 | | American | - |
Beringian | - | | Beringian | - | | Beringian | - | | Beringian | - | | Beringian | - |
Mediterranean | 52 | | Mediterranean | 27 | | Mediterranean | 27 | | Mediterranean | 42 | | Mediterranean | 39 |
SW-Asian | 2 | | SW-Asian | 13 | | SW-Asian | 1 | | SW-Asian | 5 | | SW-Asian | 5 |
San | 0 | | San | 0.0175 | | San | 0 | | San | 0 | | San | - |
E-African | 0 | | E-African | 1 | | E-African | 0 | | E-African | 0 | | E-African | 1 |
Pygmy | 0 | | Pygmy | 0 | | Pygmy | 0 | | Pygmy | - | | Pygmy | - |
W-African | 0.634 | | W-African | 0.0775 | | W-African | 0 | | W-African | 0 | | W-African | |
PS. Look at post above for Basque/Iron Age Iberian for compositions. And two posts above for Late Bronze Age Iberian.