Politics World War III?

Vallicanus said:
Do you really think that highly corrupt politicians and religious extremists are absent from the West?
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There are no terrorist groups in Europe in 2023, if there are all the more reason to ban all religions
 
TaktikatEMalet said:
There are no terrorist groups in Europe in 2023, if there are all the more reason to ban all religions
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You keep saying ban all religions.
How do you propose to do that when many many millions would oppose that action?
 
Vallicanus said:
You keep saying ban all religions.
How do you propose to do that when many many millions would oppose that action?
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The same way people opposed Christianity and Islam in the beginning. If they don't like they become prisoners by breaking the law
 
bicicleur 2 said:
@ norbert I am not offended.
I simply cannot follow your reasoning as if NATO is the agressor and as if Russia is merely defending itself by invading Ukraine.
Nor can Ukraine be seen as a nation in which Nazis form a threat for Russia, Ukraine itself or any other country.

As for your previous post, I find it very naive and even dangerous to believe that if the west would make an example to the rest of the world, the rest of the world would follow that example. It won't change the attitude of Putin or the Ayatollahs and so many others with lots of power and influence.
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I have said all that there was to say from my perspective. If you have paid attention, you would understand that I said that the ship has sailed a long time ago in regards to the West's lead as a model for modernisation. This is no longer possible.

Putin has reached out to the West for at least 20 years. He followed the vision of a Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok. It was a great chance for Europe to assert itself as an indepent global player. Privileged access to cheap Russian gas was the basis of Germany's industry and wealth and not just Germany's. It is in all our interest to create a common security framework. Instead of that, European "leaders" caved in to US pressure and opted to remain mere vassals at the cost of their own economies and peace in Europe. The Russians are no longer tolerating the expansion of a hostile military alliance to their doorsteps. They are strong enough to oppose the American plan to encircle Russia with its military bases. If Mexico chose to join a military alliance led by Russia or China, you can rest assured that US troops would be in Mexico City within 24 hours.

Russia's decision to invade Ukraine was a preventive strike. They were compelled to act because all diplomatic efforts and warnings have failed. Clausewitz would say, war is politics by other means. Had the Russians watched Ukraine joining NATO, all gloves would be off and we would be at the brink of a nuclear war. Ukraine would not be able to resist US demands to set up military bases on its territory, such that could host intercontinental ballistic missiles that could hit Moscow within a couple of minutes. It's bad enough that the Americans plan to install them in Poland and Romania. Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis?

There is no such thing as fool's license. Smaller countries have to be very wise and careful if they have a world or regional power as their neighbour. Ukraine is ruled by corrupt fools who are willing to fight to the last Ukrainian while filling their pockets. Most Ukrainians are patriots who stood up to defend their country but they are dying for a wrong cause and in a war that should never have happened. It is one of the most shameful wars in modern history. The West has pushed the Ukrainians into a war it knew they can't win. Victory is not the aim but to weaken Russia, to inflict as much damage as possible, so the Russians won't be able to interfere with the West's meddling all over the world like in Syria in 2015 when they intervened to prevent another Iraq and Libya.

Sorry but the war in Ukraine didn't come out of nowhere. It didn't start in February 2022 but has being going on since 2014. The Ukrainians have been shelling Donbas on a regular basis, ignoring the Minsk Accord and preparing for an invasion of the Donbas which the Russians intercepted. Even then, the Russians sent barely enough troops to put some pressure on the Ukrainian government and to force them to the negotiating table. They sent 30.000 troops towards Kyiv/Kiev just to scare them and divert their troops from the Donbas. It's obvious that they never intended to capture Kyiv/Kiev. You can't conquer a city of 2+ million people with 30.000 troops. And as you probably remember, they were negotiating in Turkey in April 2022 until Boris Johnson got in and told the Ukrainians to either stop the negotiations or lose Western support. The Russians were ready to leave Ukraine. The Donbas would have gotten autonomy but it would have remained part of Ukraine. And they wouldn't have taken Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Only Crimea would have remained Russian as it was historically. The people there voted to join Russia, regardless of what anyone in the West thinks. Crimea has been home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet since 1783. If you think they'd let NATO take that over, you got it all wrong, my friend. Such things only happen by force and if that were an option, we probably wouldn't be here right now.

If we lived in a world where international law meant something, the Russian invasion of Ukraine could only be condemned. But the West thinks it can enforce its "rules-based order" while referring to international law only when it suits it. The world has had enough of the West's hypocrisy. Do you see the rest of the world lining up to condemn Russia? No, they're lining up to join BRICS. But everyone sane is condemning this brutal and cynical war of attrition where both sides don't know how to stop. There is no off-ramp and, even worse, no back channel communication between the US and Russia. The EU doesn't matter anymore and will be treated as the vassal dog it is. You can't plan wars, only how to start them. Once they take off, they develop their own dynamics and a chain of events beyond anyone's control. People can be willing to go to the bitter end just to save face, no matter the human costs. It begs the question if Russia did us all a favour by initiating its "Special Military Operation." Remember, there was no declaration of war and the hotspots of fighting are still geographically limited. You don't see them levelling Kyiv, Lviv or Odessa. People in those cities are living normal lives as there isn't a war at all while in the east there's the stench of death everywhere. But to return to what I said about doing us all a favour, as cynicial as it may sound: it may have prevented a much broader escalation, a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. And we're still not beyond that threat.

It's like with nuclear weapons. As horrible as they are, they guaranteed stability and an equilibrium of powers. Weapons control agreements were honoured and taken seriously even at the height of the Cold War. That kind of mutual respect and concern has disappeared.
 
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TaktikatEMalet said:
The same way people opposed Christianity and Islam in the beginning. If they don't like they become prisoners by breaking the law
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I don't think that policy worked. Most of the world is now either Christian (often nominal) or Muslim.
 
Vallicanus said:
I don't think that policy worked. Most of the world is now either Christian (often nominal) or Muslim.
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So it did work then, people didn't used to follow either of these religions in the iron age

I think a lot of middle eastern people would feel a lot better without Islam in their life, especially women
 
The Iron Age?

So we should go back to living a malodorous, primitive existence, probably dying of disease before we are 30 or being skewered in some petty tribal squabble.

Got you.

You need to accept that Christianity and Islam are a modern and existing reality, a fact, and no amount of hand wringing will change that.

I have no time for either creed but they are an inescapable fact.
 
Vallicanus said:
The Iron Age?

So we should go back to living a malodorous, primitive existence, probably dying of disease before we are 30 or being skewered in some petty tribal squabble.

Got you.

You need to accept that Christianity and Islam are a modern and existing reality, a fact, and no amount of hand wringing will change that.

I have no time for either creed but they are an inescapable fact.
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They aren't modern, they're a bunch of storytelling garbage from 2000 years ago that have no business being important in 2023. Religion has nothing to do with curing diseases
 
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TaktikatEMalet said:
They aren't modern, they're a bunch of storytelling garbage from 2000 years ago that have no business being important in 2023. Religion has nothing to do with curing diseases
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So you prefer Iron Age religions.
Were they not storytelling garbage too?:rolleyes:
 
norbert said:
I have said all that there was to say from my perspective. If you have paid attention, you would understand that I said that the ship has sailed a long time ago in regards to the West's lead as a model for modernisation. This is no longer possible.

Putin has reached out to the West for at least 20 years. He followed the vision of a Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok. It was a great chance for Europe to assert itself as an indepent global player. Privileged access to cheap Russian gas was the basis of Germany's industry and wealth and not just Germany's. It is in all our interest to create a common security framework. Instead of that, European "leaders" caved in to US pressure and opted to remain mere vassals at the cost of their own economies and peace in Europe. The Russians are no longer tolerating the expansion of a hostile military alliance to their doorsteps. They are strong enough to oppose the American plan to encircle Russia with its military bases. If Mexico chose to join a military alliance led by Russia or China, you can rest assured that US troops would be in Mexico City within 24 hours.

Russia's decision to invade Ukraine was a preventive strike. They were compelled to act because all diplomatic efforts and warnings have failed. Clausewitz would say, war is politics by other means. Had the Russians watched Ukraine joining NATO, all gloves would be off and we would be at the brink of a nuclear war. Ukraine would not be able to resist US demands to set up military bases on its territory, such that could host intercontinental ballistic missiles that could hit Moscow within a couple of minutes. It's bad enough that the Americans plan to install them in Poland and Romania. Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis?

There is no such thing as fool's license. Smaller countries have to be very wise and careful if they have a world or regional power as their neighbour. Ukraine is ruled by corrupt fools who are willing to fight to the last Ukrainian while filling their pockets. Most Ukrainians are patriots who stood up to defend their country but they are dying for a wrong cause and in a war that should never have happened. It is one of the most shameful wars in modern history. The West has pushed the Ukrainians into a war it knew they can't win. Victory is not the aim but to weaken Russia, to inflict as much damage as possible, so the Russians won't be able to interfere with the West's meddling all over the world like in Syria in 2015 when they intervened to prevent another Iraq and Libya.

Sorry but the war in Ukraine didn't come out of nowhere. It didn't start in February 2022 but has being going on since 2014. The Ukrainians have been shelling Donbas on a regular basis, ignoring the Minsk Accord and preparing for an invasion of the Donbas which the Russians intercepted. Even then, the Russians sent barely enough troops to put some pressure on the Ukrainian government and to force them to the negotiating table. They sent 30.000 troops towards Kyiv/Kiev just to scare them and divert their troops from the Donbas. It's obvious that they never intended to capture Kyiv/Kiev. You can't conquer a city of 2+ million people with 30.000 troops. And as you probably remember, they were negotiating in Turkey in April 2022 until Boris Johnson got in and told the Ukrainians to either stop the negotiations or lose Western support. The Russians were ready to leave Ukraine. The Donbas would have gotten autonomy but it would have remained part of Ukraine. And they wouldn't have taken Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Only Crimea would have remained Russian as it was historically. The people there voted to join Russia, regardless of what anyone in the West thinks. Crimea has been home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet since 1783. If you think they'd let NATO take that over, you got it all wrong, my friend. Such things only happen by force and if that were an option, we probably wouldn't be here right now.

If we lived in a world where international law meant something, the Russian invasion of Ukraine could only be condemned. But the West thinks it can enforce its "rules-based order" while referring to international law only when it suits it. The world has had enough of the West's hypocrisy. Do you see the rest of the world lining up to condemn Russia? No, they're lining up to join BRICS. But everyone sane is condemning this brutal and cynical war of attrition where both sides don't know how to stop. There is no off-ramp and, even worse, no back channel communication between the US and Russia. The EU doesn't matter anymore and will be treated as the vassal dog it is. You can't plan wars, only how to start them. Once they take off, they develop their own dynamics and a chain of events beyond anyone's control. People can be willing to go to the bitter end just to save face, no matter the human costs. It begs the question if Russia did us all a favour by initiating its "Special Military Operation." Remember, there was no declaration of war and the hotspots of fighting are still geographically limited. You don't see them levelling Kyiv, Lviv or Odessa. People in those cities are living normal lives as there isn't a war at all while in the east there's the stench of death everywhere. But to return to what I said about doing us all a favour, as cynicial as it may sound: it may have prevented a much broader escalation, a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. And we're still not beyond that threat.

It's like with nuclear weapons. As horrible as they are, they guaranteed stability and an equilibrium of powers. Weapons control agreements were honoured and taken seriously even at the height of the Cold War. That kind of mutual respect and concern has disappeared.
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So, I guess Putin was in the same situation as Hitler in 1939 when he faced the maritime blocade by the allies?
 
bicicleur 2 said:
So, I guess Putin was in the same situation as Hitler in 1939 when he faced the maritime blocade by the allies?
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In most ways yes. But a bit different, Hitler was at the helm of a rising Germany economically and in other aspects after the great depression. I have read it argued that this rebound in economy in the 30s, even helped him cement his power (check unepleoyement numbers 1920s-1940s). At the time Germany as a "state" was not pleased about the world order just as it wasnt leading up to the first world war, it wanted more land, more influence, more resources.
In Putins case he is left with a shell of the USSR, downgraded from a bipolar world order where the USSR was a great power, to a "just a regional power" as Obama stated during his presidency. He has all the land he needs (which through corruption despite all the resources is underdeveloped), but close to zero influence outside his satellite states, and more importantly he has little power projection compared to the USSR. Nowadays he is a junior partner, relying on China and funnily enough NK.

In a big dog eat small dog world, him claiming Ukraine without the jaw to back it up is ridiculous.
Although I understand why for Russia, Ukraine of vital strategic interest. Geopolitically Russia is really f..., it does not have the luxury the US has of a perfect setup, with weaker allies to the north and south, the biggest navy x7 protecting the surroinding pacific and atlantic ocean. Just think about it, if Wagner could march from the Ukraine front to Moscow in half a day... what could a better prepared scenario do. Putin has every reason to be very worried. But going all in on your chips (almost, no full mob yet) on a play for Ukraine when you are leading a tiny shell of the USSR is foolish.

So, when I see people defend his decision, even though I agree with their assessment of the preceeding sittuation from the Russian security interest pov, I think they misjudge the situation just as Putin did. Russia today, thanks to that decision is far more unsafe than it was 3 years ago, while having lost their whole direct European customer base for their energy exports, and having lost prestige and influence in the world due to their militaries poor performance. The exact opposite outcome of what the decisionmaker was hoping for.

PS. Now depending how the Israel(potentially US) VS Hamas (potentially Iran) war proceeds, this can give a further signal to China not to test their luck. But sadly would not resolve the UN and other global organisations having lost all functionality and credibility. As other analysts have pointed out China has a window till 2028 to make a move, and I am sure they are studying their options. After that the demographics will cripple them. This is not their golden century if variables remain the same without some unpredictable event, this is their golden decade.

The future though, imo this is the century of SEA. Think the triangle between eastern tip of India, Australia, and Japan. This means excluding Japan, India and Australia. Countries like Indoenisa, Malesyia, Vietnam, Tailand, Brunei etc. 70% of world trade passess there, and some 40% of world population lives there (only demographic in the world rising with no sign of stopping). This might be that regions golden decades.
 
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HzGP16Z.png


This was from 2020, I wonder if the current events will change this though.
 
Between these stupid wars, and the aftermath of the lockdowns from the pandemic, I would recommend not looking at your cumulative rate of return on your investment from the past 4 years.

I'm really starting to build animosity internally for all of the mismanagement of this country and the global economy.

I'm embarrassed by both Republicans and Democrats, these people don't care about acting responsibly.
 
Jovialis said:
Between these stupid wars, and the aftermath of the lockdowns from the pandemic, I would recommend not looking at your cumulative rate of return on your investment from the past 4 years.

I'm really starting to build animosity internally for all of the mismanagement of this country and the global economy.

I'm embarrassed by both Republicans and Democrats, these people don't care about acting responsibly.
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what could they have done?
what were the alternatives?
 
bicicleur 2 said:
what could they have done?
what were the alternatives?
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Henry Kissinger says it was a mistake to allow so many pro-Hamas immigrants into Germany. But only now it is a problem? This has been an issue for the past 30 years. On the other hand, these people are being forced into this position partly because of trans-national corporate and neoconservative foreign policy. As well as religious extremism (from both sides).


www.foxnews.com

Kissinger says it was 'grave mistake' for Germany to take in so many migrants amid pro-Hamas protests

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger says Germany made a "grave mistake" by allowing in so many foreigners as the nation now sees support for Palestine and Hamas in the streets.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com

Regarding the affects of the pandemic, while hindsight is 20/20, I think it would have been better if a lockdown was never put in place. Nevertheless, I think the implementation of the vaccine was adequate (I actually received my flu-shot and 5th Pfizer booster the other day). People who didn't take it, while potentially more vulnerable, developed antigens after exposure.
 
Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding

Just remembering Eugene Debs’ speech in 1918. There’s something of contemporaneous in these words:
“In the Middle Ages when the feudal lords . . .concluded to enlarge their domains, to increase their power, their prestige and their wealth they declared war upon one another. But they themselves did not go to war any more than the modern feudal lords, the barons of Wall Street, go to war. — Eugene V. Debs in Canton, Ohio on June 16, 1918.”
 
Duarte said:
Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding

Just remembering Eugene Debs’ speech in 1918. There’s something of contemporaneous in these words:
“In the Middle Ages when the feudal lords . . .concluded to enlarge their domains, to increase their power, their prestige and their wealth they declared war upon one another. But they themselves did not go to war any more than the modern feudal lords, the barons of Wall Street, go to war. — Eugene V. Debs in Canton, Ohio on June 16, 1918.”
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Whoever speaks these words today, will most likely be accused of "antisemitism."
 
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