Politics World War III?

Jovialis

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Ukraine-Russia War
Armenian-Azerbaijan ethnic conflict
Israel-Palestine War
Taiwan-China soon?

The USA will eventually get involved. When that happens...

Let the political class murder one another and let the people of the world live in peace.
 
for the moment it looks like Israel-Palestine war will stay a regional conflict and other countries won't join in military
it's a dwarf against a giant, the dwarf can't keep this up for long
it's more like a suicidal mission

I would be more concerned about Taiwan
that's why Russia can't be allowed to win
 
Western societies are numb, they think that peace and democracy are a given and that we don't need to fight for them.
If the West had responded to the invasion of Crimea in 2014 as quickly and resolutely as it did in the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine. If Ukraine had been accepted into NATO straight away, the invasion wouldn't have happened. The weakness of the West in 2014 cause the invasion of 2022.
And therefore, the most likely thing to provoke a war is the weakness of the West, and when I say West I essentially mean the US.
There is only one way to prevent this, if you want peace, prepare for war (Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum) as the Latin expression says.
Peace it is only achieved through strength or like Theodore Roosevelt used to said "Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far."​
 
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When I see children die and grieving parents, I feel for the people. I thought I was numb to violence shown in the media. But once one has children, it radically changes the perspective; at least for me.

I'm grateful to have forged these emotions, because it makes me feel like a human being.
 
When I see children die and grieving parents, I feel for the people. I thought I was numb to violence shown in the media. But once one has children, it radically changes the perspective; at least for me.

I'm grateful to have forged these emotions, because it makes me feel like a human being.
It only speaks well of your character that you maintain your humanity and remain empathic and compassionate instead of becoming cynical or contemptuous of human life. Many people become insensitive to the suffering and misery of people in war zones after being exposed to various types of war and conflict in the media. My heart and compassion go out to all the innocent victims, particularly the small children on BOTH sides. Anyway, many people are revealing their true colors by using the horrific terror attack on Israel to spew their inhumane rhetoric and vicious hatred. Online, on Twitter, you can find people including Altright political activists openly calling for the genocide of Palestinians, rooting for them to be bombed out of existence, or collectively referring to Palestinians as terrorists. It's odd that this kind of vitriol and racial hatred doesn't get you banned, canceled, or stigmatized when directed at Russians or, for that matter, Palestinians. According to reports, Israel has dropped white phosphorus bombs on civilians in Gaza. I hope it's not true for the sake of the innocent people there. Besides, I support being tough on terrorists, but I cannot accept innocent civilians being killed in the process as collateral damage. It's not collateral damage but a human tragedy.
 
Ukraine-Russia War
Armenian-Azerbaijan ethnic conflict
Israel-Palestine War
Taiwan-China soon?

The USA will eventually get involved. When that happens...

Let the political class murder one another and let the people of the world live in peace.
In my opinion it is not a function of how many conflicts there are, or how widespread geographically they are.
World Wars usually followed a degradation of the world order and existing institutions and mechanisms failing. Sadly where the threshold is, is anyones guess. But we know these mechanisms have been degrading for decades and the current institutions devised in a different time and world are useless.

So if one recalls the imbalances in the european order in WWI and the set up of the League of Nations which barely held and utterly failed leading to WWII, then looks at the UN which did better but still has a dysfunctional setup not reflectiive or the realities of power on the ground and paralyzed by the SC. Then I am afraid it is not a matter of if, but rather of when the scores are settled, and a new more reflective world order stramlines relations and protocols into the future.

When it happens, I hope to survive long enough to see what all that redacted R&D military budget has achieved in terms of technology. I am sure we are not prepared, and it will be awe-some* (*in its less used meaning).

PS: I wonder how the US can adapt its traditional WW winning formula to WW3. The geostrategic pieces are there, but they would have to go isolationist for a term or two, and maybe just blocade trading lanes while other nations fatigue before really commiting. Unless there is an ace on the sleeve, modern Manhattan project, and they flip the script.
 
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That whole Palestinian war is sad. I don't support the crimes committed by the Palestinians but they are also the victims of Israelis. Imagine someone coming and settling your land after 1000+ years and even corner you. It's just sad. Why can't they live in peace and be integrated into each others societies. Hope a conflict in Kosovo doesn't occur unless it gets invaded by the Serbs with support from Russia.

Russia as a country is an aggressor that needs to be neutralized. Together with Serbia.
 
That whole Palestinian war is sad. I don't support the crimes committed by the Palestinians but they are also the victims of Israelis. Imagine someone coming and settling your land after 1000+ years and even corner you. It's just sad. Why can't they live in peace and be integrated into each others societies. Hope a conflict in Kosovo doesn't occur unless it gets invaded by the Serbs with support from Russia.

Russia as a country is an aggressor that needs to be neutralized. Together with Serbia.

Where do you want the Jews to live? They used to live there, why should they have to be scattered in Europe
 
Where do you want the Jews to live? They used to live there, why should they have to be scattered in Europe
Because their presumed ancestors lived in the area 2.000 years ago, doesn't give the Jews the right to take the land of those who lived there untill 1947.
 
Because their presumed ancestors lived in the area 2.000 years ago, doesn't give the Jews the right to take the land of those who lived there untill 1947.
It's a very complicated situation.
When the United Kingdom decolonized this area and handed it over to the Jews it created a big problem, however both countries have historical links to the region because the Romans expelled the Jews.

The ideal would be for both sides to reach an agreement and respect that they both have connections to the region and put the past aside
 
It's a very complicated situation.
When the United Kingdom decolonized this area and handed it over to the Jews it created a big problem, however both countries have historical links to the region because the Romans expelled the Jews.

The ideal would be for both sides to reach an agreement and respect that they both have connections to the region and put the past aside
This situation already lasts for 86 years now, and none of both sides have made a serious effort to reach a viable agreement.
 
Because their presumed ancestors lived in the area 2.000 years ago, doesn't give the Jews the right to take the land of those who lived there untill 1947.

Yeah I get that but they need to stay somewhere. Give the Jews a smaller area than they have now and hopefully everyone is happy(er)
 
As much as I don't like Hamas , I can also say Israel is a terrorist state for sure and the US is ran by jews



We are all just pawns in this political game.
 
As much as I don't like Hamas , I can also say Israel is a terrorist state for sure and the US is ran by jews



We are all just pawns in this political game.

How many terrorist attacks have jews done on foreign land? US is run by Americans, maybe some of them are Jewish but it's not a big conspiracy theory
 
How many terrorist attacks have jews done on foreign land? US is run by Americans, maybe some of them are Jewish but it's not a big conspiracy theory
A terrorist state is not the proper word, but it is a state that supports fascists and racists who believe they are superior people.
And some of these fascists are the settlers who live on the land they took on the west bank. This is stolen land and the theft is legalised by the state of Israel.
 
The problem is that almost everyone I see, including well educated and respected individuals, tend to look at things in a moral vacuum.
From that perspective, what they argue is logical, but in the larger picture it is really flawed.

Say, in 1948 after Israel established its state. The Arab league attacked them with the goal of erasing them from the map. But being so sure they would succeed, they evacuated civilians from the surroundings. After they failed to erase Israel, and in fact Israel took control of the surroundings, should Israel just welcome back the people that tried to erase them, and wait for round two, three, or however many rounds already. In a zero sum game like security and war, the answer is obvious.

Lets look at 2005, when Israel unilaterally dismantled 21 settlments from the Gaza strip, and de facto ended the occupation of the Gaza strip withdrawing its troops from the region. This in theory could have been a golden chance for a two state solution, as Gaza and the Palestinian authorities became sovereign. But guess what? 2006 Elections in Gaza come around (after ten years) and guess who gets voted into power? That's right, Hamas. At that point, from the reading I have done, any sort of diplomatic solution was over.

Now about the moral vacuum, a perspective that I myself have had to change.

Premise: In International Humanitarian Law a combat action must be neccesary to achieve a legitimate military aim, and the benefit be proportional to the risk to civilians.

Assume there is a building with a improvised rocket factory (water pipes and what not), where 2 civilians live. If the expected risk of those rockets is the death of 100 civilians. Is it legitimate for nation A to kill 2 civilians of nation B to safeguard its own. Based on INT Humanitarian Law, even two for two would be proportional.

Now its very messy stuff, various philosophies one can rely on, but in the real world there is no moral vacum. Decision makers do not look at the bombing of the rocket factory and say, killing these two civilians is wrong in principle. Rather they use the calculus above, looking at the larger picture. And we have seen this time and time again.
When the US bombed Hiroshima, then Nagasaki. If looked at from a moral vacuum its a terrible tragedy. And it is. But Truman and the state wanted to avoid a land invasion which would have killed far more than a couple of hundred thousand people (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_War ; >26mln death just on allies side 37-45) . We only remember Hiroshima and Nagasaki because the atomic bomb was used. But if one looks at the other strategic bombing operations over Japan, up to 600,000 people died from conventional strategic bombings, while around 300,000 from both atomic bombs combined. Now extrapolate a long land invasion, and perpetual conventional strategic bombings of mostly wooden cities, and the calculus I mentioned earlier becomes evident. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_bombing_during_World_War_II)

I do wish we lived in an ideal world. But the world is a mess.

Edit: The rocket example is not hypothetical, from open source intelligence I have seen quite a few such on twitter. eg:
 
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A terrorist state is not the proper word, but it is a state that supports fascists and racists who believe they are superior people.
And some of these fascists are the settlers who live on the land they took on the west bank. This is stolen land and the theft is legalised by the state of Israel.

Let people believe they are superior if they want to, as long as they don't go out killing random people I don't care

Also I don't understand how the Palestinians managed to get so many bombs and weapons, all we keep hearing about is how poor they are. Why aren't they investing on food, houses instead
 
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For anyone interested, here is one of my favorite geopolitics/geostrategy analysts. He has a few books out, and has got quite a few predictions right so far. Not that I agree with everything he says, but he always has valuable takes.

 
Let people believe they are superior if they want to, as long as they don't go out killing random people I don't care

Also I don't understand how the Palestinians managed to get so many bombs and weapons, all we keep hearing about is how poor they are. Why aren't they investing on food, houses instead
These people believe they are supperior, they are the 'chosen people' and they take the land of others 'because it is the promised land'. They walk around in the streets with rifles and from time to time people who they disowned get shot by them. I have been in Israel, I have seen them walking in the streets and showing off with their rifles. It's disgusting.

Hamas is not funded by the Palestinians, they are funded by Iran and Qatar. You put all Palestinians and Hamas on the same line, which is not the reality, but you prefer to simplify things.
 

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