@BoNe
I ‘ve some observations to do here :
- you speak of dynasties (paternal clans I think) rather than of idividuals cases, OK – but in a group of affiliated people sharing for a while the same recent lineage (lineages break down at some stage, always) some people know new mutations creating new Y-subclades - if it’s true that when sets of a population goes their own way towards new lands at some stage of their history, it isn’t only the bearer of a peculiar mutation who goes off, not his brothers alone but also his cousins, whose a certain number doesn’t bear the brand new mutation. After this kind of breaking, even more when it concerns a small group of young warriors, it’s true that drift can favour (or not) the bearers of the new born subclade. But as a whole the bearers of more ancient forms of the lineages doesn’t fade out abruptly. It comes with time, generations after generations, quickly or slowly according to the size and the sedentism tendancy of the concerned population. ATW the best method to trace the routes of descendants of a source pop is to consider the internal ratio’s of the successive mutations in every place. Considering that an ancient enough stage of the lineage (the Y-...*) in some place is a dead end is quickly said ; this statement requires reasoning at first -
- you wrote : [« The P310 and L151 haplogroups found in northern Europe are extinct lines—they don’t correspond to the lineages of current populations. Modern Germans descend from a U106 line dated to around 3000 BCE. Finding earlier subclades like P310 or L151 around 2800 BCE means that present-day populations are not descended from those exact groups. »]
It’s OK for me. But just a little more south the succession of the old Y-R1b subclades (with*) left in today pop’s of Poland, Hungary, Cechia, Switzerland seems showing the route their ancestors took before through Central Europe to reach the Atlantic shores, North as well as South. I avow the founds in ancient times are surer than these modern states.
- you wrote : [« There is a gap of 1,000 years between P310* and L151* that remains unaccounted for. « ]
Concerning these two haplogroups I found on the net contradictory statements ; some site consider them as synonyms – Family Tree DNA says L151 broke off from P310 about 3400 BCE, with a TMRCA of 3050 BCE ; if true it makes a gap of only 350 years.
- you wrote : [« On the other hand, Bell Beaker admixture samples consistently show at least 20–30% “Atlantic Mediterranean” ancestry, even at dates when they supposedly had not yet reached the Atlantic Mediterranean region. This suggests that both the movement of lineages and of pottery could have followed the same route, potentially beginning in Iberia around 2800 BCE. There are many Bell Beaker excavation sites along the Tagus that have yet to be analyzed. »]
Concerning the percentages of ‘atlantic mediter’ I think this component based on modern popu-lation shows nevertheless tight links with the EEF so for a big part with ANA, and the presence of this component weaker but of some weight in eastern Europe goes rather with a Neolithic allover presence in Europe before erasement by others people during history and doesn’t reflect a massive expansion come uniquely from the Atlantic regions. BB’s steppic ancestors mixed during their all expansion with local females, more than did the CWC people. You admit this component was already present among BBC’s far from the Atlantic Mediterranean region. Surely the only way to know more would be to do a deep precise survey about the mt-subclades… Concerning the dychotomy between pots and ADN I think we haven’t all the tools to understand the Beakers phenomenon, which could have had more than a source (with partial osmosis) and maybe implied kind of « cultural captation », what blurres things. What is still here : the rôle of males in females in the cases of osmosis.
There isn’t enough empirical data to clarify the “seed planting” of L151*. From 2010 to 2020, it was thought that there was only a single jump between P310 and P312, but over time more have emerged, and more will continue to appear—unless all 8 billion people on the planet get tested. But even that may not be necessary, because we are so endogamous that it’s already quite clear we descend from a single person carrying the L151 mutation. However, L151* lineages have also continued to exist in parallel, which is why we still find them today. As I mentioned before, I myself am classified as L151* through one of the most advanced deep tests currently available, carried out in a lab by a friend of mine who works in a population genetics company. It’s not that I don’t have mutations beyond L151—it’s just that they haven’t been identified yet.
DNA testing isn’t equally popular in all countries. In the North, far more people have been tested, and the estimates from DNA companies are heavily biased. To truly understand where the most basal lineages are, we would need specific, localized studies that focus on chronology.
What most reliably supports chronological models is ancient material evidence, but we shouldn’t be overly rigid in our thinking when investigating apex genealogical lines. That’s why I speak of dynasties—because they are all connected, at some point, with a date and place yet to be determined. The fact that we don’t have that data yet doesn’t mean they ceased to exist—it simply means we don’t yet know where they were. Languages matter little in these matters.
As you rightly say, male lines do eventually break, but that hasn’t happened in this case—we are merely following ancestral lines that already existed. When a Y-line survives for 5,000 uninterrupted years and is tied to one or several responsible cultures, it’s because that culture was superior to the rest.
How many Y-lineages, in just 5,000 years, have managed to produce more than 300 million males, reach the Moon, and win World War II?
Only one.
We are not tracing something random—one single individual enabled the rise of multiple distinct cultures (with similar mythologies) in a very short span of time, and they endured and prospered in a wildly disproportionate way.
Studies like the one in this thread are meaningless if they don’t compare deep subclades across both modern and ancient populations to reveal their actual connections.
DF27 was supposedly born in Germany based on a single empirical sample dated to 2300 BCE.
Today, we know that DF27** was born in Iberia with 90% probability.
Everything is misclassified and largely unrevised. According to Maciamo, DF27 > Z195 > Z272 was supposedly characteristic of the La Tène culture—a subclade that today is carried by 40% of Basques…
Don’t be surprised if, once modern population data is analyzed, the most basal subclades of U152 also turn out to be in Iberia. Every L2 sample I’ve seen dated between 2500–1500 BCE in PCA tests consistently shows more Iberian than Germanic, Celtic, or Central Mediterranean ancestry in K47 classifications. That’s quite odd for a subclade supposedly characteristic of Central Europe.
I could also see it having originated in the South of France, having access to both the Atlantic and Mediterranean routes.
It has always been believed that males from North-Central Europe replaced Iberians, but the more studies are done, the more the evidence suggests the opposite—that the Bell Beakers were primarily native Iberians.
Z195* is found at 10% today in Asturias (northwest Iberia), which strongly suggests that it originated there and later came to dominate the east, appearing in the Argar culture between 2400–2200 BCE.
Nearly all DF27 lineages in Europe that reach 10% frequencies—from the British Isles, to Italy, to Poland and Greece—are primarily Z195.
France shows more variability; I’d say there’s still a 10% chance that DF27* could be native to France.
The specific expansion of Z195 (a subclade we have solid case data for) in such a short period could only be achieved with horses, ships, or both.
From 2000 BCE onward, everything becomes chaotic, with more and more branches coexisting and engaging in fratricidal dynamics—displacements and conquests happening continuously. That’s why, in the end, all descendants of L151 are so deeply mixed. Beneath our modern identities as Europeans, we are fundamentally brothers.
www.biorxiv.org
