Genetic study Long-term hunter-gatherer continuity in the Rhine-Meuse region was disrupted by local formation of expansive Bell Beaker groups

Tautalus

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Ethnic group
Portuguese (Luso-Ibero-Celtic)
Y-DNA haplogroup
I2-M223 / I-FTB15368
mtDNA haplogroup
H6a1b2y

Abstract

The first phase of the ancient DNA revolution painted a broad-brush picture of European Holocene prehistory, whereby 6500-4000 BCE, farmers descending from western Anatolians mixed with local hunter-gatherers resulting in 70-100% ancestry turnover, then 3000-2500 BCE people associated with the Corded Ware complex spread steppe ancestry into north-central Europe. We document an exception to this pattern in the wider Rhine-Meuse area in communities in the wetlands, riverine areas, and coastal areas of the western and central Netherlands, Belgium and western Germany, where we assembled genome-wide data for 109 people 8500-1700 BCE. Here, a distinctive population with high hunter-gatherer ancestry (~50%) persisted up to three thousand years later than in continental European regions, reflecting limited incorporation of females of Early European Farmer ancestry into local communities. In the western Netherlands, the arrival of the Corded Ware complex was also exceptional: lowland individuals from settlements adopting Corded Ware pottery had hardly any steppe ancestry, despite a characteristic early Corded Ware Y-chromosome. The limited influx may reflect the unique ecology of the region's river-dominated landscapes, which were not amenable to wholesale adoption of the early Neolithic type of farming introduced by Linearbandkeramik, making it possible for previously established groups to thrive, and creating a persistent but permeable boundary that allowed transfer of ideas and low-level gene flow. This changed with the formation-through-mixture of Bell Beaker using populations ~2500 BCE by fusion of local Rhine-Meuse people (9-17%) and Corded Ware associated migrants of both sexes. Their expansion from the Rhine-Meuse region then had a disruptive impact across a much wider part of northwest Europe, including Britain where its arrival was the main source of a 90-100% replacement of local Neolithic peoples.​
 
PCA
VtmVQax.png


Haplogroups

Master IDPublicationPeriodSexY haplogroupY haplo (ISOGG v15.73)mtDNA haplo
AAT001PosthYuNature2023MesolithicFn/a (female)n/a (female)U5a2
MPR001PosthYuNature2023MesolithicFn/a (female)n/a (female)U5b2a
I7015UnpublishedMesolithicFn/a (female)n/a (female)U5b1b
I7018Unpublished MesolithicMI-S21825I2a1a1bU5b2a
DOG001PosthYuNature2023MesolithicMI-Y3259I2a1b1U5b1b
DOG002PosthYuNature2023MesolithicMI-Y3104I2a1a2U5b2a1a
DOG007PosthYuNature2023MesolithicMI-S6724I2a2a~K1e
I7010UnpublishedMesolithicMIIU5b1+16189+@16192
I13024UnpublishedMesolithicFn/a (female)n/a (female)U5b2a
SPI001UnpublishedMesolithicMI-SK1271I2a2bU5b2a1a
I12091UnpublishedEN_SwifterbantMI-Y3749I2a1a2K1a4a1b
I12093UnpublishedEN_SwifterbantFn/a (female)n/a (female)U5b2b
I12094UnpublishedEN_SwifterbantFn/a (female)n/a (female)U5b2b
I17968UnpublishedEN_SwifterbantFn/a (female)n/a (female)H+152
I33738UnpublishedEN_SwifterbantF....H1
I33739UnpublishedEN_SwifterbantF....T2b
SWA001UnpublishedEN_SwifterbantFn/a (female)n/a (female)H1i
SWA002UnpublishedEN_SwifterbantMI-M423I2a1a2N/A
SWA004UnpublishedEN_SwifterbantMI-M423I2a1a2U5b2a1a2
BLR001UnpublishedMN_BaltrumMI-M423I2a1a2K1e
I35542UnpublishedMN_TielFn/a (female)n/a (female)U5b1+16189
I35543UnpublishedMN_TielFn/a (female)n/a (female)H1m
I35544UnpublishedMN_TielFn/a (female)n/a (female)n/a (<2x cov)
I1565LipsonNature2017MN_BlatterhohleMI-M838I2a1a1b1b~U5b2b2
I1593LipsonNature2017MN_BlatterhohleMR-V88R1b1bU5b2a2
I1563LipsonNature2017MN_BlatterhohleFn/a (female)n/a (female)H5
I1594LipsonNature2017MN_BlatterhohleMR-V88R1b1bJ1c1b1
I38121UnpublishedMN_HazendonkMCCT2b
I38447UnpublishedMN_HazendonkF....U5b1+16189+@16192
I38448UnpublishedMN_HazendonkMI-L161I2a1a2K1a3a
KH150630ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-Y5334I2a2a~U2e1c1
KH150422ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-M423I2a1a2U5b1d2
KH150610ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)H3aa
KH150195_KH150196_KH150616ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (sex unknown)n/a (sex unknown)J1c1
KH150204_KH150634ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-Y5334I2a2a~J2b1a
KH150287ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S9234I2a2a1aU5a2b4
KH150289ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-M423I2a1a2HV0
KH150613_KH180043ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S6635I2a2aJ2b1a2
KH150189_KH150632_KH150636ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-Y5334I2a2a~U5b2b2
KH150620ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-BY40578I2a1a1a1~X2c1
KH150625ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)H1
KH150203ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (sex unknown)n/a (sex unknown)U4'9
KH150633ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-Y5334I2a2a~K1a3
KH150641ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-Y5334I2a2a~J1c1
KH150618ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S6635I2a2aH7d
KH150614_KH150615ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-M838I2a1a1b1b~J1c3g
KH150640ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)J1c2
KH150627ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)V10
KH150619ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)H3aa
KH150628ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S6635I2a2aH7d
KH150190ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S6635I2a2aJ1c1
KH150191ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S9234I2a2a1aT2b
KH150193_KH150286ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (sex unknown)n/a (sex unknown)U
KH150197ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S6635I2a2aT2
KH150198ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S9234I2a2a1aU5b
KH150200ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (sex unknown)n/a (sex unknown)HV0a
KH150208_KH150210ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (sex unknown)n/a (sex unknown)U
KH150418ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S6635I2a2aJ1c2
KH150419ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (sex unknown)n/a (sex unknown)H
KH150612ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S23680I2a1b1bH5
KH150621ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S9234I2a2a1aH
KH150623ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-BY40578I2a1a1a1~X2c1
KH150626ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)U5b1b
KH150629ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-Y5334I2a2a~H5u
KH150639ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-S6635I2a2aU5b1h
KH180044ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)U5b3
KH180045ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)K1e
KH150637ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergMI-Y5334I2a2a~K2b1a
KH150635ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)U3a1
KH150622ImmelCommBiol2021MN_WartbergFn/a (female)n/a (female)X2c1
I13627UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMIIH4a1a1a
I7014UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumFn/a (female)n/a (female)H1
I18068Veselka et al 2024MLN_BelgiumMI-Y3259I2a1b1H7d
I21570Veselka et al 2024MLN_BelgiumFn/a (female)n/a (female)T2b
I13657UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-P37I2H7d
I13633UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-Y11222I2a1a1a1~U5a2b4
I13659UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-Y11222I2a1a1a1~J1c5
I13649UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-L158I2a1a1aK1a3a
I13651UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumFn/a (female)n/a (female)K1a4a1
I13654UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI2I2H3an
I13655UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-Y11222I2a1a1a1~H1q
I13656UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-L158I2a1a1aU5b2b2
I13629UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-P37I2H3k1
I13631UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-P37I2U5b2b2
I13638UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-M423I2a1a2J1c5
I13660UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-Y3992I2a1a1a1~U5b2b3
I13635UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-S21825I2a1a1bH1q
I7012UnpublishedMLN_BelgiumMI-L158I2a1a1aH1e
I33741UnpublishedLNA_Vlaardingen/CordedWareFn/a (female)n/a (female)J1c3g
I12896UnpublishedLNA_Vlaardingen/CordedWareFn/a (female)n/a (female)K1a4a1
I12902UnpublishedLNA_Vlaardingen/CordedWareMR-U106R1b1a1b1a1a1H4a1a1a1a
I39211OlaldeNature2018LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-P312R1b1a1b1a1a2K1a1b2a
I4068OlaldeNature2018LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-P312R1b1a1b1a1a2U5a2a1
I4069OlaldeNature2018LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-P312R1b1a1b1a1a2U5a1a1
I4073OlaldeNature2018LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-P312R1b1a1b1a1a2U5a2b1
I4074OlaldeNature2018LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-P312R1b1a1b1a1a2H
I4075OlaldeNature2018LNB_Bell_BeakerFn/a (female)n/a (female)H5a1
I5748OlaldeNature2018LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-Z302R1b1a1b1a1a2e2X2b4
I5750OlaldeNature2018LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-P312R1b1a1b1a1a2K1b1a1+199
I13025PattersonNature2021LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-U106R1b1a1b1a1a1K2b1a
I13026PattersonNature2021LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-M269R1b1a1bJ1b1a1
I13027PattersonNature2021LNB_Bell_BeakerFn/a (female)n/a (female)T2b21
I12900UnpublishedLNB_Bell_BeakerMR-Z302R1b1a1b1a1a2e2U5b2b1a1
I13028PattersonNature2021LNB_Bell_BeakerMR-P312R1b1a1b1a1a2H1a
I4067PattersonNature2021Early Bronze AgeFn/a (female)n/a (female)R1b1
I20063PattersonNature2021Early Bronze AgeFn/a (female)n/a (female)K1b1a
I4076OlaldeNature2018Early Bronze AgeFn/a (female)n/a (female)K1+16362
I4070OlaldeNature2018Early Bronze AgeMR-S263R1b1a1b1a1a1cU5a1b1a
I4071OlaldeNature2018Early Bronze AgeFn/a (female)n/a (female)H6a1a
 
Until CWC & BB, exclusively Y > I2a1 et I2a2 sauf 2 R1b-V88
 
These Dutch Bell-Beakers were the population that led to a 90% demographic replacement in Britain. I expected a lot of R-L21 to show up. Maybe they are the R-P312s that couldn't be subtyped.
 
These Dutch Bell-Beakers were the population that led to a 90% demographic replacement in Britain. I expected a lot of R-L21 to show up. Maybe they are the R-P312s that couldn't be subtyped.
Gaska on Eurogenes doesn't believe in a Netherlands origin of first BB's. Others think that the core of northern BB's was around the central Rhine Germany, what I should accept very easily. ATW BB's genesis isn't a vry simple thing, I think. At some stage Y-R1b-P312 members took the hand on this culture (where from?) and spread it farther, not without mixings. It's true that the most of the BB auDNA colonising Britain came from the Rhine mouth, but not all of them. For L21, it shows up at IA in central Europe, but it doesn't prove it's from there! I should prefer a Gaul origin, concerning a small number of bearers with a small baby boom between LN/EBA on the Channel shores, more in West than in East on the continent (eg: Normandy IA) and a big subsequent one in Britain. It seems that since long ago it was rather Y-R1b-U152 which populated todate northern France and todate Benelux (future Belgae), as in Germany and eastern France.That said, the not subtyped P312 could be L21. It's a pity we cannot know more about them.
 
Gaska had some bizarre ideas about the Bell Beakers, that their languages weren't IE, that R-L51 didn't come from Yamnaya, that R-P312 had Franco-Cantabrian origins, so I wouldn't trust his opinion too much.
But I agree with you that there probably was more than one BB migratory route into Britain.
Despite the genetic profile of the BB populations in Britain closely resembles that of the Rhine-Meuse BB groups, with shared ancestry from Corded Ware-associated groups and local (Rhine-Meuse) Continental European farmers, the paper also refers to the possibility of other migration routes to Britain, based on individuals for whom the CWC + Rhine-Meuse farmers models are not well suited, with a possible origin in the Alps.
The BB likely arrived in Britain through multiple migratory routes, and Northern Gaul could be one of them.
The FTDNA migration map for R-L21 (and parent clades) traces a route that passes through Central Europe, north of the Alps, across Gaul and into Britain via Normandy, which aligns very well with your description of the BB L21 migratory route.​
PGcwsHh.png
 
The latest studies of current populations indicate that the highest rates of P312*, DF27*, U152*, L21* are in the western part of the Iberian Peninsula near the Tagus River and north of the peninsula, right in the epicenter of the Bell Beaker culture, the whole yamnaya hypothesis was wrong from the beginning 90% are R1b-Z2103 and 10% R1a-Z93.

M269* was born in Anatolia-Armenia-South Caucasus in 5,000 BC

L23* was born in the Balkans in 4,500 BC

L51* was born in the Balkans in 4,250 BC

P310* was born in the Aegean - Crete in 4,000 BC

L151* was born in Iberia, Río Tajo 3,800 ac

P312* was born in the North of Iberia 3500 ac

Year 2800 ac Expansion Bell Beaker.

L151, P312, U106*, L21*, DF13*, DF27*, ZZ12*, Z195*, U152*, L2* expand.

The Proto-Lusitanians expanded sailing and Proto-Indo-European, which was always a language of Balkan origin.

It was always taken for granted that the U152 of Portugal was due to later migrations but they have much U152* prior to the Celtic subclades that were actually back.

Indo-European was the Frankish language of the Bell Beaker (Atlantic Bronze) commercial network that lasted from 2,800-1800 ac, when U106, DF13, L2, Z56 and Z195 were divided or the Mycenaean PF7562 had something to do with it.

Only in Iberia there are functional horses of the DA1-U haplogroup, present in the Lusitano horses, the PRE and the wild horses of America exported by the Spaniards that are prior to the DAC domestication of the Z2103 of the steppes of 2,200 AC.

Iberia has always had all the evidence that they were the cradle of the Bell Beakers, you made a very big mental straw for 15 years for four loose tests that classified the subclades U106 and P312 as stepe.
 

Abstract

The first phase of the ancient DNA revolution painted a broad-brush picture of European Holocene prehistory, whereby 6500-4000 BCE, farmers descending from western Anatolians mixed with local hunter-gatherers resulting in 70-100% ancestry turnover, then 3000-2500 BCE people associated with the Corded Ware complex spread steppe ancestry into north-central Europe. We document an exception to this pattern in the wider Rhine-Meuse area in communities in the wetlands, riverine areas, and coastal areas of the western and central Netherlands, Belgium and western Germany, where we assembled genome-wide data for 109 people 8500-1700 BCE. Here, a distinctive population with high hunter-gatherer ancestry (~50%) persisted up to three thousand years later than in continental European regions, reflecting limited incorporation of females of Early European Farmer ancestry into local communities. In the western Netherlands, the arrival of the Corded Ware complex was also exceptional: lowland individuals from settlements adopting Corded Ware pottery had hardly any steppe ancestry, despite a characteristic early Corded Ware Y-chromosome. The limited influx may reflect the unique ecology of the region's river-dominated landscapes, which were not amenable to wholesale adoption of the early Neolithic type of farming introduced by Linearbandkeramik, making it possible for previously established groups to thrive, and creating a persistent but permeable boundary that allowed transfer of ideas and low-level gene flow. This changed with the formation-through-mixture of Bell Beaker using populations ~2500 BCE by fusion of local Rhine-Meuse people (9-17%) and Corded Ware associated migrants of both sexes. Their expansion from the Rhine-Meuse region then had a disruptive impact across a much wider part of northwest Europe, including Britain where its arrival was the main source of a 90-100% replacement of local Neolithic peoples.​
This is not unlike the persistence of the Iron Gates Mesolithic communities in proximity to ANF populations in the Balkans, which I think persisted for about a millennia before they were finally absorbed.
 
FWIW, this is what FTDNA has for the path of my SNP under M222 with a closeup of the end at FGC37623. M222 itself is very near the Hill of Tara which is very important for Irish history.

FTDNA_M222.png
FTDNA.png
 
The latest studies of current populations indicate that the highest rates of P312*, DF27*, U152*, L21* are in the western part of the Iberian Peninsula near the Tagus River and north of the peninsula, right in the epicenter of the Bell Beaker culture, the whole yamnaya hypothesis was wrong from the beginning 90% are R1b-Z2103 and 10% R1a-Z93.

M269* was born in Anatolia-Armenia-South Caucasus in 5,000 BC

L23* was born in the Balkans in 4,500 BC

L51* was born in the Balkans in 4,250 BC

P310* was born in the Aegean - Crete in 4,000 BC

L151* was born in Iberia, Río Tajo 3,800 ac

P312* was born in the North of Iberia 3500 ac

Year 2800 ac Expansion Bell Beaker.

L151, P312, U106*, L21*, DF13*, DF27*, ZZ12*, Z195*, U152*, L2* expand.

The Proto-Lusitanians expanded sailing and Proto-Indo-European, which was always a language of Balkan origin.

It was always taken for granted that the U152 of Portugal was due to later migrations but they have much U152* prior to the Celtic subclades that were actually back.

Indo-European was the Frankish language of the Bell Beaker (Atlantic Bronze) commercial network that lasted from 2,800-1800 ac, when U106, DF13, L2, Z56 and Z195 were divided or the Mycenaean PF7562 had something to do with it.

Only in Iberia there are functional horses of the DA1-U haplogroup, present in the Lusitano horses, the PRE and the wild horses of America exported by the Spaniards that are prior to the DAC domestication of the Z2103 of the steppes of 2,200 AC.

Iberia has always had all the evidence that they were the cradle of the Bell Beakers, you made a very big mental straw for 15 years for four loose tests that classified the subclades U106 and P312 as stepe.
I find a bit surprising your conceptions of YR1b routes (surprising is an euphemism) - BTW L11-L151-P310 are the same or at least contain very very close mutations if not the very same and are considered as not differentiating subgroups of R1b pop -
 
The latest studies of current populations indicate that the highest rates of P312*, DF27*, U152*, L21* are in the western part of the Iberian Peninsula near the Tagus River and north of the peninsula, right in the epicenter of the Bell Beaker culture, the whole yamnaya hypothesis was wrong from the beginning 90% are R1b-Z2103 and 10% R1a-Z93.

M269* was born in Anatolia-Armenia-South Caucasus in 5,000 BC

L23* was born in the Balkans in 4,500 BC

L51* was born in the Balkans in 4,250 BC

P310* was born in the Aegean - Crete in 4,000 BC

L151* was born in Iberia, Río Tajo 3,800 ac

P312* was born in the North of Iberia 3500 ac

Year 2800 ac Expansion Bell Beaker.

L151, P312, U106*, L21*, DF13*, DF27*, ZZ12*, Z195*, U152*, L2* expand.

The Proto-Lusitanians expanded sailing and Proto-Indo-European, which was always a language of Balkan origin.

It was always taken for granted that the U152 of Portugal was due to later migrations but they have much U152* prior to the Celtic subclades that were actually back.

Indo-European was the Frankish language of the Bell Beaker (Atlantic Bronze) commercial network that lasted from 2,800-1800 ac, when U106, DF13, L2, Z56 and Z195 were divided or the Mycenaean PF7562 had something to do with it.

Only in Iberia there are functional horses of the DA1-U haplogroup, present in the Lusitano horses, the PRE and the wild horses of America exported by the Spaniards that are prior to the DAC domestication of the Z2103 of the steppes of 2,200 AC.

Iberia has always had all the evidence that they were the cradle of the Bell Beakers, you made a very big mental straw for 15 years for four loose tests that classified the subclades U106 and P312 as stepe.
I find a bit surprising your conceptions of YR1b routes (surprising is an euphemism) - BTW L11-L151-P310 are the same or at least contain very very close mutations if not the very same and are considered as not differentiating subgroups of R1b pop -
 
I find a bit surprising your conceptions of YR1b routes (surprising is an euphemism) - BTW L11-L151-P310 are the same or at least contain very very close mutations if not the very same and are considered as not differentiating subgroups of R1b pop -

I understand that my hypothesis may seem unusual, but it is empirically possible.

Between P310 > L151 > P312 there isn’t just a single generation—there can be one or many. Subclades represent “dynasties,” not individuals; they are a kind of lineage consolidated over time. Typically, a subclade goes extinct within 4 to 6 generations after it emerges. Maintaining an uninterrupted male line is not something that happens by chance.

The R1b-P310* ancestors of L151 must have known and practiced the reproductive strategy still used today by Jews, Muslims, and Indian castes: maintaining about 12.5% consanguinity along the male line. Over six generations of R1b, by exchanging cousins from maternal lines carrying H1, H3, J, T2, K, and HV, all the inbreeding would be concentrated on preserving the autosomal genome of the original patriarch—whose identity would have been known at the time, and who over time would be deified and worshipped. This could explain the mythical distortion of origins, but the Indo-European “light-bringer” prince is a recurring figure across all mythologies: Thor, Lugh, Apollo, Horus…

There is a gap of 1,000 years between P310* and L151* that remains unaccounted for.

The P310 and L151 haplogroups found in northern Europe are extinct lines—they don’t correspond to the lineages of current populations. Modern Germans descend from a U106 line dated to around 3000 BCE. Finding earlier subclades like P310 or L151 around 2800 BCE means that present-day populations are not descended from those exact groups. People assume no deeper subclades were found, but in reality, most of the lineages sampled from that era are now extinct. Finding a “patient zero” for a mutation like L151**—that is, the very first carrier—would be harder than finding the body of Christ or Alexander the Great.

On the other hand, Bell Beaker admixture samples consistently show at least 20–30% “Atlantic Mediterranean” ancestry, even at dates when they supposedly had not yet reached the Atlantic Mediterranean region. This suggests that both the movement of lineages and of pottery could have followed the same route, potentially beginning in Iberia around 2800 BCE. There are many Bell Beaker excavation sites along the Tagus that have yet to be analyzed.

From my perspective, I identify the “steppe” signal as the result of recessive endogamy in the R1b lineage, and the Atlantic-Mediterranean component as the counterpart in the H1+H3 lineages, which appear to expand in tandem with the Bell Beaker phenomenon.

Basing the entire Bell Beaker expansion theory on just 4 or 5 samples with questionable dating between 3000–2500 BCE does not seem to adequately explain what the P310* individuals were doing during the time they gave rise to the L151* line from which we descend today.
 
@BoNe

I ‘ve some observations to do here :

- you speak of dynasties (paternal clans I think) rather than of idividuals cases, OK – but in a group of affiliated people sharing for a while the same recent lineage (lineages break down at some stage, always) some people know new mutations creating new Y-subclades - if it’s true that when sets of a population goes their own way towards new lands at some stage of their history, it isn’t only the bearer of a peculiar mutation who goes off, not his brothers alone but also his cousins, whose a certain number doesn’t bear the brand new mutation. After this kind of breaking, even more when it concerns a small group of young warriors, it’s true that drift can favour (or not) the bearers of the new born subclade. But as a whole the bearers of more ancient forms of the lineages doesn’t fade out abruptly. It comes with time, generations after generations, quickly or slowly according to the size and the sedentism tendancy of the concerned population. ATW the best method to trace the routes of descendants of a source pop is to consider the internal ratio’s of the successive mutations in every place. Considering that an ancient enough stage of the lineage (the Y-...*) in some place is a dead end is quickly said ; this statement requires reasoning at first -
- you wrote : [« The P310 and L151 haplogroups found in northern Europe are extinct lines—they don’t correspond to the lineages of current populations. Modern Germans descend from a U106 line dated to around 3000 BCE. Finding earlier subclades like P310 or L151 around 2800 BCE means that present-day populations are not descended from those exact groups. »]

It’s OK for me. But just a little more south the succession of the old Y-R1b subclades (with*) left in today pop’s of Poland, Hungary, Cechia, Switzerland seems showing the route their ancestors took before through Central Europe to reach the Atlantic shores, North as well as South. I avow the founds in ancient times are surer than these modern states.

- you wrote : [« There is a gap of 1,000 years between P310* and L151* that remains unaccounted for. « ]

Concerning these two haplogroups I found on the net contradictory statements ; some site consider them as synonyms – Family Tree DNA says L151 broke off from P310 about 3400 BCE, with a TMRCA of 3050 BCE ; if true it makes a gap of only 350 years.



- you wrote : [« On the other hand, Bell Beaker admixture samples consistently show at least 20–30% “Atlantic Mediterranean” ancestry, even at dates when they supposedly had not yet reached the Atlantic Mediterranean region. This suggests that both the movement of lineages and of pottery could have followed the same route, potentially beginning in Iberia around 2800 BCE. There are many Bell Beaker excavation sites along the Tagus that have yet to be analyzed. »]

Concerning the percentages of ‘atlantic mediter’ I think this component based on modern popu-lation shows nevertheless tight links with the EEF so for a big part with ANA, and the presence of this component weaker but of some weight in eastern Europe goes rather with a Neolithic allover presence in Europe before erasement by others people during history and doesn’t reflect a massive expansion come uniquely from the Atlantic regions. BB’s steppic ancestors mixed during their all expansion with local females, more than did the CWC people. You admit this component was already present among BBC’s far from the Atlantic Mediterranean region. Surely the only way to know more would be to do a deep precise survey about the mt-subclades… Concerning the dychotomy between pots and ADN I think we haven’t all the tools to understand the Beakers phenomenon, which could have had more than a source (with partial osmosis) and maybe implied kind of « cultural captation », what blurres things. What is still here : the rôle of males in females in the cases of osmosis.
 
@BoNe

I ‘ve some observations to do here :

- you speak of dynasties (paternal clans I think) rather than of idividuals cases, OK – but in a group of affiliated people sharing for a while the same recent lineage (lineages break down at some stage, always) some people know new mutations creating new Y-subclades - if it’s true that when sets of a population goes their own way towards new lands at some stage of their history, it isn’t only the bearer of a peculiar mutation who goes off, not his brothers alone but also his cousins, whose a certain number doesn’t bear the brand new mutation. After this kind of breaking, even more when it concerns a small group of young warriors, it’s true that drift can favour (or not) the bearers of the new born subclade. But as a whole the bearers of more ancient forms of the lineages doesn’t fade out abruptly. It comes with time, generations after generations, quickly or slowly according to the size and the sedentism tendancy of the concerned population. ATW the best method to trace the routes of descendants of a source pop is to consider the internal ratio’s of the successive mutations in every place. Considering that an ancient enough stage of the lineage (the Y-...*) in some place is a dead end is quickly said ; this statement requires reasoning at first -
- you wrote : [« The P310 and L151 haplogroups found in northern Europe are extinct lines—they don’t correspond to the lineages of current populations. Modern Germans descend from a U106 line dated to around 3000 BCE. Finding earlier subclades like P310 or L151 around 2800 BCE means that present-day populations are not descended from those exact groups. »]

It’s OK for me. But just a little more south the succession of the old Y-R1b subclades (with*) left in today pop’s of Poland, Hungary, Cechia, Switzerland seems showing the route their ancestors took before through Central Europe to reach the Atlantic shores, North as well as South. I avow the founds in ancient times are surer than these modern states.

- you wrote : [« There is a gap of 1,000 years between P310* and L151* that remains unaccounted for. « ]

Concerning these two haplogroups I found on the net contradictory statements ; some site consider them as synonyms – Family Tree DNA says L151 broke off from P310 about 3400 BCE, with a TMRCA of 3050 BCE ; if true it makes a gap of only 350 years.



- you wrote : [« On the other hand, Bell Beaker admixture samples consistently show at least 20–30% “Atlantic Mediterranean” ancestry, even at dates when they supposedly had not yet reached the Atlantic Mediterranean region. This suggests that both the movement of lineages and of pottery could have followed the same route, potentially beginning in Iberia around 2800 BCE. There are many Bell Beaker excavation sites along the Tagus that have yet to be analyzed. »]

Concerning the percentages of ‘atlantic mediter’ I think this component based on modern popu-lation shows nevertheless tight links with the EEF so for a big part with ANA, and the presence of this component weaker but of some weight in eastern Europe goes rather with a Neolithic allover presence in Europe before erasement by others people during history and doesn’t reflect a massive expansion come uniquely from the Atlantic regions. BB’s steppic ancestors mixed during their all expansion with local females, more than did the CWC people. You admit this component was already present among BBC’s far from the Atlantic Mediterranean region. Surely the only way to know more would be to do a deep precise survey about the mt-subclades… Concerning the dychotomy between pots and ADN I think we haven’t all the tools to understand the Beakers phenomenon, which could have had more than a source (with partial osmosis) and maybe implied kind of « cultural captation », what blurres things. What is still here : the rôle of males in females in the cases of osmosis.
There isn’t enough empirical data to clarify the “seed planting” of L151*. From 2010 to 2020, it was thought that there was only a single jump between P310 and P312, but over time more have emerged, and more will continue to appear—unless all 8 billion people on the planet get tested. But even that may not be necessary, because we are so endogamous that it’s already quite clear we descend from a single person carrying the L151 mutation. However, L151* lineages have also continued to exist in parallel, which is why we still find them today. As I mentioned before, I myself am classified as L151* through one of the most advanced deep tests currently available, carried out in a lab by a friend of mine who works in a population genetics company. It’s not that I don’t have mutations beyond L151—it’s just that they haven’t been identified yet.

DNA testing isn’t equally popular in all countries. In the North, far more people have been tested, and the estimates from DNA companies are heavily biased. To truly understand where the most basal lineages are, we would need specific, localized studies that focus on chronology.

What most reliably supports chronological models is ancient material evidence, but we shouldn’t be overly rigid in our thinking when investigating apex genealogical lines. That’s why I speak of dynasties—because they are all connected, at some point, with a date and place yet to be determined. The fact that we don’t have that data yet doesn’t mean they ceased to exist—it simply means we don’t yet know where they were. Languages matter little in these matters.

As you rightly say, male lines do eventually break, but that hasn’t happened in this case—we are merely following ancestral lines that already existed. When a Y-line survives for 5,000 uninterrupted years and is tied to one or several responsible cultures, it’s because that culture was superior to the rest.

How many Y-lineages, in just 5,000 years, have managed to produce more than 300 million males, reach the Moon, and win World War II?

Only one.

We are not tracing something random—one single individual enabled the rise of multiple distinct cultures (with similar mythologies) in a very short span of time, and they endured and prospered in a wildly disproportionate way.

Studies like the one in this thread are meaningless if they don’t compare deep subclades across both modern and ancient populations to reveal their actual connections.

DF27 was supposedly born in Germany based on a single empirical sample dated to 2300 BCE.

Today, we know that DF27** was born in Iberia with 90% probability.

Everything is misclassified and largely unrevised. According to Maciamo, DF27 > Z195 > Z272 was supposedly characteristic of the La Tène culture—a subclade that today is carried by 40% of Basques…

Don’t be surprised if, once modern population data is analyzed, the most basal subclades of U152 also turn out to be in Iberia. Every L2 sample I’ve seen dated between 2500–1500 BCE in PCA tests consistently shows more Iberian than Germanic, Celtic, or Central Mediterranean ancestry in K47 classifications. That’s quite odd for a subclade supposedly characteristic of Central Europe.

I could also see it having originated in the South of France, having access to both the Atlantic and Mediterranean routes.

It has always been believed that males from North-Central Europe replaced Iberians, but the more studies are done, the more the evidence suggests the opposite—that the Bell Beakers were primarily native Iberians.

Z195* is found at 10% today in Asturias (northwest Iberia), which strongly suggests that it originated there and later came to dominate the east, appearing in the Argar culture between 2400–2200 BCE.

Nearly all DF27 lineages in Europe that reach 10% frequencies—from the British Isles, to Italy, to Poland and Greece—are primarily Z195.

France shows more variability; I’d say there’s still a 10% chance that DF27* could be native to France.

The specific expansion of Z195 (a subclade we have solid case data for) in such a short period could only be achieved with horses, ships, or both.

From 2000 BCE onward, everything becomes chaotic, with more and more branches coexisting and engaging in fratricidal dynamics—displacements and conquests happening continuously. That’s why, in the end, all descendants of L151 are so deeply mixed. Beneath our modern identities as Europeans, we are fundamentally brothers.
 
@BoNe

I ‘ve some observations to do here :

- you speak of dynasties (paternal clans I think) rather than of idividuals cases, OK – but in a group of affiliated people sharing for a while the same recent lineage (lineages break down at some stage, always) some people know new mutations creating new Y-subclades - if it’s true that when sets of a population goes their own way towards new lands at some stage of their history, it isn’t only the bearer of a peculiar mutation who goes off, not his brothers alone but also his cousins, whose a certain number doesn’t bear the brand new mutation. After this kind of breaking, even more when it concerns a small group of young warriors, it’s true that drift can favour (or not) the bearers of the new born subclade. But as a whole the bearers of more ancient forms of the lineages doesn’t fade out abruptly. It comes with time, generations after generations, quickly or slowly according to the size and the sedentism tendancy of the concerned population. ATW the best method to trace the routes of descendants of a source pop is to consider the internal ratio’s of the successive mutations in every place. Considering that an ancient enough stage of the lineage (the Y-...*) in some place is a dead end is quickly said ; this statement requires reasoning at first -
- you wrote : [« The P310 and L151 haplogroups found in northern Europe are extinct lines—they don’t correspond to the lineages of current populations. Modern Germans descend from a U106 line dated to around 3000 BCE. Finding earlier subclades like P310 or L151 around 2800 BCE means that present-day populations are not descended from those exact groups. »]

It’s OK for me. But just a little more south the succession of the old Y-R1b subclades (with*) left in today pop’s of Poland, Hungary, Cechia, Switzerland seems showing the route their ancestors took before through Central Europe to reach the Atlantic shores, North as well as South. I avow the founds in ancient times are surer than these modern states.

- you wrote : [« There is a gap of 1,000 years between P310* and L151* that remains unaccounted for. « ]

Concerning these two haplogroups I found on the net contradictory statements ; some site consider them as synonyms – Family Tree DNA says L151 broke off from P310 about 3400 BCE, with a TMRCA of 3050 BCE ; if true it makes a gap of only 350 years.



- you wrote : [« On the other hand, Bell Beaker admixture samples consistently show at least 20–30% “Atlantic Mediterranean” ancestry, even at dates when they supposedly had not yet reached the Atlantic Mediterranean region. This suggests that both the movement of lineages and of pottery could have followed the same route, potentially beginning in Iberia around 2800 BCE. There are many Bell Beaker excavation sites along the Tagus that have yet to be analyzed. »]

Concerning the percentages of ‘atlantic mediter’ I think this component based on modern popu-lation shows nevertheless tight links with the EEF so for a big part with ANA, and the presence of this component weaker but of some weight in eastern Europe goes rather with a Neolithic allover presence in Europe before erasement by others people during history and doesn’t reflect a massive expansion come uniquely from the Atlantic regions. BB’s steppic ancestors mixed during their all expansion with local females, more than did the CWC people. You admit this component was already present among BBC’s far from the Atlantic Mediterranean region. Surely the only way to know more would be to do a deep precise survey about the mt-subclades… Concerning the dychotomy between pots and ADN I think we haven’t all the tools to understand the Beakers phenomenon, which could have had more than a source (with partial osmosis) and maybe implied kind of « cultural captation », what blurres things. What is still here : the rôle of males in females in the cases of osmosis.
There isn’t enough empirical data to clarify the “seed planting” of L151*. From 2010 to 2020, it was thought that there was only a single jump between P310 and P312, but over time more have emerged, and more will continue to appear—unless all 8 billion people on the planet get tested. But even that may not be necessary, because we are so endogamous that it’s already quite clear we descend from a single person carrying the L151 mutation. However, L151* lineages have also continued to exist in parallel, which is why we still find them today. As I mentioned before, I myself am classified as L151* through one of the most advanced deep tests currently available, carried out in a lab by a friend of mine who works in a population genetics company. It’s not that I don’t have mutations beyond L151—it’s just that they haven’t been identified yet.

DNA testing isn’t equally popular in all countries. In the North, far more people have been tested, and the estimates from DNA companies are heavily biased. To truly understand where the most basal lineages are, we would need specific, localized studies that focus on chronology.

What most reliably supports chronological models is ancient material evidence, but we shouldn’t be overly rigid in our thinking when investigating apex genealogical lines. That’s why I speak of dynasties—because they are all connected, at some point, with a date and place yet to be determined. The fact that we don’t have that data yet doesn’t mean they ceased to exist—it simply means we don’t yet know where they were. Languages matter little in these matters.

As you rightly say, male lines do eventually break, but that hasn’t happened in this case—we are merely following ancestral lines that already existed. When a Y-line survives for 5,000 uninterrupted years and is tied to one or several responsible cultures, it’s because that culture was superior to the rest.

How many Y-lineages, in just 5,000 years, have managed to produce more than 300 million males, reach the Moon, and win World War II?

Only one.

We are not tracing something random—one single individual enabled the rise of multiple distinct cultures (with similar mythologies) in a very short span of time, and they endured and prospered in a wildly disproportionate way.

Studies like the one in this thread are meaningless if they don’t compare deep subclades across both modern and ancient populations to reveal their actual connections.

DF27 was supposedly born in Germany based on a single empirical sample dated to 2300 BCE.

Today, we know that DF27** was born in Iberia with 90% probability.

Everything is misclassified and largely unrevised. According to Maciamo, DF27 > Z195 > Z272 was supposedly characteristic of the La Tène culture—a subclade that today is carried by 40% of Basques…

Don’t be surprised if, once modern population data is analyzed, the most basal subclades of U152 also turn out to be in Iberia. Every L2 sample I’ve seen dated between 2500–1500 BCE in PCA tests consistently shows more Iberian than Germanic, Celtic, or Central Mediterranean ancestry in K47 classifications. That’s quite odd for a subclade supposedly characteristic of Central Europe.

I could also see it having originated in the South of France, having access to both the Atlantic and Mediterranean routes.

It has always been believed that males from North-Central Europe replaced Iberians, but the more studies are done, the more the evidence suggests the opposite—that the Bell Beakers were primarily native Iberians.

Z195* is found at 10% today in Asturias (northwest Iberia), which strongly suggests that it originated there and later came to dominate the east, appearing in the Argar culture between 2400–2200 BCE.

Nearly all DF27 lineages in Europe that reach 10% frequencies—from the British Isles, to Italy, to Poland and Greece—are primarily Z195.

France shows more variability; I’d say there’s still a 10% chance that DF27* could be native to France.

The specific expansion of Z195 (a subclade we have solid case data for) in such a short period could only be achieved with horses, ships, or both.

From 2000 BCE onward, everything becomes chaotic, with more and more branches coexisting and engaging in fratricidal dynamics—displacements and conquests happening continuously. That’s why, in the end, all descendants of L151 are so deeply mixed. Beneath our modern identities as Europeans, we are fundamentally brothers.
Personally I 'm tempted to see the first DF27* lineage born between Southern Gaul or Aquitania and Northeastern Iberia, without any certainty of course. The latter expansion of some of its subclades in Northwestern Europe could be due (as you said, I think) to rather maritime routes (Atlantic), the most maybe around Atlantic Bronze Age. Wait and see.
 
Personally I 'm tempted to see the first DF27* lineage born between Southern Gaul or Aquitania and Northeastern Iberia, without any certainty of course. The latter expansion of some of its subclades in Northwestern Europe could be due (as you said, I think) to rather maritime routes (Atlantic), the most maybe around Atlantic Bronze Age. Wait and see.

I find the U152 rates in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula very suspicious, particularly in the area of the Tagus River near Lisbon. The north is more dominated by DF27* (30%) with ZZ12_1* (around 2550 BC), while the south shows some peaks of about 30% U152, whose exact subclades we don’t yet know. Meanwhile, in southern France, the Ligurians seemed to be formed by fairly balanced mixes of L21, U152, and DF27, and they were in a strategic zone for conquest and trade with other regions. R1b-L2 appears to have expanded very early towards the east and north. If L2 were to be found in the Aegean area around 2000 BC, it would become quite clear that all the military elites who dominated the Mediterranean were, in the end, different variants of western Celts at the genetic level.

Why did the Galatians keep invading Turkey and the Aegean over and over again?

Perhaps they were making a blood claim to territory that dated back thousands of years.

Common citizens forget; military elites do not.
 
I find the U152 rates in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula very suspicious, particularly in the area of the Tagus River near Lisbon. The north is more dominated by DF27* (30%) with ZZ12_1* (around 2550 BC), while the south shows some peaks of about 30% U152, whose exact subclades we don’t yet know. Meanwhile, in southern France, the Ligurians seemed to be formed by fairly balanced mixes of L21, U152, and DF27, and they were in a strategic zone for conquest and trade with other regions. R1b-L2 appears to have expanded very early towards the east and north. If L2 were to be found in the Aegean area around 2000 BC, it would become quite clear that all the military elites who dominated the Mediterranean were, in the end, different variants of western Celts at the genetic level.

Why did the Galatians keep invading Turkey and the Aegean over and over again?

Perhaps they were making a blood claim to territory that dated back thousands of years.

Common citizens forget; military elites do not.
Concerning Y-R1B DF27 and U152 I should accept easily they were dominant among Ligurians, spite I have no anDNA study at hand for them. L21? Less sure... U152 density in S-W Iberia is amazing at first sight - We need deep precise surveys about its diverse subclades. I don't know their density in ancient times but I am not sure U152 was so ancient there - What I read is that a lot of tribes sets of Celtic or Belgae origine (+ some "Germanics" of close regions) had finished their travels in this Iberian region at IA times. ATW before to express too precise hypothesis we need more samples here and there. Concerning U152 "and Cy" in Aegean region I have some doubts about a remote presence there, before Galatians. The current U152 presence in archaic regions of eastern Creta (not far from Aegea) could be caused by subsequant historic moves in eastern Mediterranea (Venitians in the Middle Ages).
 
As interesting as Jean Manco's theory about the Stelae People (Proto-Italo-Celtic speakers) is, that they travelled from the Carpathian Basin to Portugal and developed there the Bell Beaker Culture, it is most likely that the early BB Culture was developed in Western Iberia, in the Tagus estuary area, by the local early Chalcolithic people, and spread East to Central Europe, by the so-called Maritime Bell Beakers.
Their Y-chromosome lineages were common in Copper Age Iberia, mainly I2 and G2, and they have no steppe ancestry.
After that there was a second phase of development, a "reflux" or reverse flow of the Bell Beakers back to the West and to the Iberian Peninsula, a new version of the culture that had been enriched by central European contributions. This is the Edward Sangmeister Reflux Model of Bell Beakers.
This reflux was led by a different people, with steppe ancestry and having R-L151 Y-chromosome and subclades. This was a mass movement of people that brought the main subclades of R-L151 to western Europe.
Only this east-to-west movement can correctly explain the origin and spread of R-L51 and its subclades.
Archaeological Culture ContextHaplogroup/Subclade EventAge Estimate (FTDNA)Location/RegionNotes
Predecessors of Yamnaya Emergence of R‐L51 from R1b‐L23ca. 4100 BCEEastern European Steppe (Yamnaya regions)This lineage was present among Yamnaya steppe pastoralists.
Early Steppe ExpansionEstablishment of R1b‐L151 in early Bronze Age populationsca. 3050 BCECentral/Eastern EuropeThis lineage becomes prominent during the influx of steppe ancestry into Europe (via the Yamnaya and early CW/Bell Beaker groups), forming the demographic substrate for later events.
Bell Beaker ComplexEmergence of R‐P312 from R1b‐L151ca. 2900 BCECentral Europe (Rhine/Danube)R‐P312 (also referred to as P312/S116) emerges as a descendant of R1b‐L151 among groups that are closely tied to steppe-associated cultures. R‐P312 arises as a key descendant branch. Its signatures are later seen in Bell Beaker contexts, which drive its spread during the early Bronze Age.
Bell Beaker ComplexAmplification of R‐P312ca. 2900–2600 BCECentral EuropeAs the Bell Beaker phenomenon takes hold in Western and Central Europe, groups carrying R‐P312 spread widely. The Beaker cultural package diffused through both migration and cultural transmission, and R‐P312 becomes a dominant Y‐chromosome lineage among these populations in regions such as the Netherlands, Germany, and beyond.
Bell Beaker Expansion into BritainFormation and spread of R‐L21ca. 2650 BCEBritish Isles and BrittanyR‐L21 is first detected among Bell Beaker burials in insular contexts. It rapidly becomes the dominant paternal lineage in these regions- Genetic data from Beaker-associated burials reveal that populations here underwent a rapid transformation, often reflecting near-complete replacement of the earlier Neolithic gene pool by steppe‐derived newcomers carrying R‐L21.
Bell Beaker Expansion in the WestEarly emergence of R‐DF27ca. 2650 BCECentral Europe The earliest dated DF27 is from Germany, subsequent expansions carried DF27 to Iberia, forming a key genetic marker of later Atlantic populations (e.g., Iberia and southwestern France). Its initial appearance during the Beaker phase suggests that DF27-bearing individuals were part of the broader wave that spread westward.
Alpine Bronze Age ContextsAppearance and spreading of R‐U152ca. 2600 BCEAlpine region, Northern Italy and parts of SwitzerlandR‐U152 appears in Bronze Age contexts along the Alpine corridor and parts of northern Italy (as well as adjacent areas like Switzerland). Its presence reflects a migration or in situ differentiation that later contributes to the gene pool of northern Italy and adjoining regions. This branch represents a separate migratory or local differentiation route from R1b‐L151, one that would later contribute to the genetic landscape associated with Celtic movements in these regions.
 
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As interesting as Jean Manco's theory about the Stelae People (Proto-Italo-Celtic speakers) is, that they travelled from the Carpathian Basin to Portugal and developed there the Bell Beaker Culture, it is most likely that the early BB Culture was developed in Western Iberia, in the Tagus estuary area, by the local early Chalcolithic people, and spread East to Central Europe, by the so-called Maritime Bell Beakers.
Their Y-chromosome lineages were common in Copper Age Iberia, mainly I2 and G2, and they have no steppe ancestry.
After that there was a second phase of development, a "reflux" or reverse flow of the Bell Beakers back to the West and to the Iberian Peninsula, a new version of the culture that had been enriched by central European contributions. This is the Edward Sangmeister Reflux Model of Bell Beakers.
This reflux was led by a different people, with steppe ancestry and having R-L151 Y-chromosome and subclades. This was a mass movement of people that brought the main subclades of R-L151 to western Europe.
Only this east-to-west movement can correctly explain the origin and spread of R-L51 and its subclades.
Archaeological Culture ContextHaplogroup/Subclade EventAge Estimate (FTDNA)Location/RegionNotes
Predecessors of Yamnaya Emergence of R‐L51 from R1b‐L23ca. 4100 BCEEastern European Steppe (Yamnaya regions)This lineage was present among Yamnaya steppe pastoralists.
Early Steppe ExpansionEstablishment of R1b‐L151 in early Bronze Age populationsca. 3050 BCECentral/Eastern EuropeThis lineage becomes prominent during the influx of steppe ancestry into Europe (via the Yamnaya and early CW/Bell Beaker groups), forming the demographic substrate for later events.
Bell Beaker ComplexEmergence of R‐P312 from R1b‐L151ca. 2900 BCECentral Europe (Rhine/Danube)R‐P312 (also referred to as P312/S116) emerges as a descendant of R1b‐L151 among groups that are closely tied to steppe-associated cultures. In Central Europe, individuals from Corded Ware contexts carry these signatures, setting the stage for later developments. R‐P312 arises as a key descendant branch. Its signatures are later seen in Bell Beaker contexts, which drive its spread during the early Bronze Age.
Bell Beaker ComplexAmplification of R‐P312ca. 2900–2600 BCECentral EuropeAs the Bell Beaker phenomenon takes hold in Western and Central Europe, groups carrying R‐P312 spread widely. The Beaker cultural package diffused through both migration and cultural transmission, and R‐P312 becomes a dominant Y‐chromosome lineage among these populations in regions such as the Netherlands, Germany, and beyond.
Bell Beaker Expansion into BritainFormation and spread of R‐L21ca. 2650 BCEBritish Isles and BrittanyR‐L21 is first detected among Bell Beaker burials in insular contexts. It rapidly becomes the dominant paternal lineage in these regions- Genetic data from Beaker-associated burials reveal that populations here underwent a rapid transformation, often reflecting near-complete replacement of the earlier Neolithic gene pool by steppe‐derived newcomers carrying R‐L21.
Bell Beaker Expansion in the WestEarly emergence of R‐DF27ca. 2650 BCECentral Europe The earliest dated DF27 is from Germany, subsequent expansions carried DF27 to Iberia, forming a key genetic marker of later Atlantic populations (e.g., Iberia and southwestern France). Its initial appearance during the Beaker phase suggests that DF27-bearing individuals were part of the broader wave that spread westward.
Alpine Bronze Age ContextsAppearance and spreading of R‐U152ca. 2600 BCEAlpine region, Northern Italy and parts of SwitzerlandR‐U152 appears in Bronze Age contexts along the Alpine corridor and parts of northern Italy (as well as adjacent areas like Switzerland). Its presence reflects a migration or in situ differentiation that later contributes to the gene pool of northern Italy and adjoining regions. This branch represents a separate migratory or local differentiation route from R1b‐L151, one that would later contribute to the genetic landscape associated with Celtic movements in these regions.
I prefer this version to the Stelae/Celtic of the West version even if things could have been a bit more complicated. Concerning DF27 birthplace, I 'm sure of nothing, an unique or a few "older" bearers in a region is not always the proof of it because we saw theories contradicted by new founds. Concerning first BB's, what is still a question is that the first settlements of complete pottery series in S6W Iberia were not in the Chalco fortresses but outside of them.
 
Concerning Y-R1B DF27 and U152 I should accept easily they were dominant among Ligurians, spite I have no anDNA study at hand for them. L21? Less sure... U152 density in S-W Iberia is amazing at first sight - We need deep precise surveys about its diverse subclades. I don't know their density in ancient times but I am not sure U152 was so ancient there - What I read is that a lot of tribes sets of Celtic or Belgae origine (+ some "Germanics" of close regions) had finished their travels in this Iberian region at IA times. ATW before to express too precise hypothesis we need more samples here and there. Concerning U152 "and Cy" in Aegean region I have some doubts about a remote presence there, before Galatians. The current U152 presence in archaic regions of eastern Creta (not far from Aegea) could be caused by subsequant historic moves in eastern Mediterranea (Venitians in the Middle Ages).
The frequencies of each group may have varied significantly over time, but that southern region of France seems to have been influenced by the three “P312 brothers” since at least 2500 BCE, and they were likely present in the area even earlier, expanding northward.

The picture changes a lot when modern populations are classified more precisely. It’s important to remember that 80% of men in the British Isles belong to DF13 (from around 2500 BCE), not to L21 (2650 BCE) per se (although I haven’t studied this part in depth). They seem to have a more isolated history, similar to the Basques, who we now know are not 90% M269 as claimed in studies from 10 years ago, but rather 90% P312: approximately 15% L21, 5% U152, and 70% DF27 (of which 30% are DF27*, 40% Z195 > 30% Z220 > 10% M153).

I see a certain technical similarity in functionality and at the same time artistic differentiation in the weapon styles, but it’s clear they were constantly influencing each other. The Cardial Ware, Bell Beaker, Urnfield, and Hallstatt cultures are fundamentally connected through an unbroken female lineage, and although the male percentages varied, the descent from P312 remained at least stable. For me, this makes it quite clear that they all shared a common mythological base that eventually evolved into the Celtic cultures—without any other haplogroup competing with them until the arrival of Greeks and Phoenicians. That’s the impression I get from what I’ve studied so far.
 
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