J2b2-L283 (proto-illyrian)

[torzio]

Looked at the J-L283 samples and conclusion is they are not from liburnian mainland area ...............but only from Dalmatian area.

The ironage look like a dalmatian migration heading north or a Dalmatian-Japodes mix

I would like to see this recent noted island sample.....was it from Brac Island ?

Map below shows Liburnian cities in yellow .............liburnian islands not included

 

[torzio]

rechecked ancient samples found

following samples sit in Liburnian areas in their time frame

I26775: mtDNA: H14a Y-DNA: J-Y13128
I26776: mtDNA: H105 Y-DNA: R-DF13
I3313 mtDNA: HV0e
I24342: mtDNA: T2b23 Y-DNA: R1b1a1b1a1a2b1
I24344: mtDNA: H13a2a
I24345: mtDNA: HV0e Y-DNA: J2b2a1
I18748: mtDNA: X2k Y-DNA: J2b2a1a1a1b
I24883: mtDNA: HV0e

and

no idea what haplogroups are these
R2050:
R2051:
R2053:

 

[torzio]

Daunians come from Nesactium (ancient Istria ) and also Brac island

The pottery the daunians kept importing came from modern Northern Croatia as per the 2021 paper.
The fragments of three Daunian duck-shaped askoi were discovered in the course of excavations conducted at the beginning of the 20th century on the Iron Age necropolis at Nesactium.

Lucilla Barresi studied personally originals of Daunian pottery exported outside Daunia in a number of
museums in Italy, Croatia and Slovenia. She compiled an exhaustive catalogue of Daunian vessels in
North Adriatic area provided with careful drawings, photographs and descriptions. She studied carefully
the corpus of finds from graves, cemeteries and settlement contexts, in relation to other categories of
items (Daunian stelae, those of Nesactium, amber, local potteries).

 

[Polska]

This thread has been a little quiet. There is a new ancient J2b L283 sample (ZO1002) from a kurgan in Zolotarevka, Russia out on the Manych Steppe. C14 dated to about 3900 BCE, the burial is classified as “early or pre Yamnaya” by the archaeological survey of Kurgan 26, burial 4, of the Zolotarevka 1 mound. Solitary burial, side crouched, coated in red ochre with organic mat material underneath the skeleton. Oval shaped burial chamber with stone slab cover. Burial inventory: a whetstone (used for sharpening knives) and a lump of sulphur. ZO1002 was one of the Eneolithic steppe samples from the recent study, “The Rise and Transformation of Bronze Age Pastoralists in the Caucasus.”

Prior to the GenArchivist Forum going off line, user “ArchetypeOne” produced some VERY INTERESTING qpadm runs (PASS) modeling Areni 1 (Chalcolithic Armenia) as having about 45% Zolotarevka ancestry. Ikiztepe, Turkey (3200 BCE) with 16% Zolotarevka and Kalehoyuk, Turkey, about 25%. This is precisely what is described in the Origin of Indo Europeans preprint from Reich and his team at Harvard, showing a CLV (Caucasus Lower Volga) Cline contribution to Core Yamnaya (about 80%) and to the Proto Indo Anatolians (30%). The Zolotarevka J2b L283 sample seems to work even better than the Remontnoye samples in this regard.

Thus, there is now a growing body of evidence, using ancient DNA, suggesting that J2b L283 is one of the lineages associated with the expansion of Indo Anatolians out of the Manych Steppe and N. Caucasus Piedmont. One group (Z622 and A28999 branches) moved west over the Black Sea steppe with the early Yamnaya (this is irrefutable now) and another group (J2b L283*) moved south through the Caucasus to Armenia and after that, as far west as central Turkey.

The rise and transformation of Bronze Age pastoralists in the Caucasus - Nature

A study presents archaeogenomic data for 131 individuals from 38 sites spanning 6,000 years, and details the demographic processes of the Caucasus and the surrounding steppe zone throughout the Bronze Age.

www.nature.com

 

[Ghurier]

Thus, there is now a growing body of evidence, using ancient DNA, suggesting that J2b L283 is one of the lineages associated with the expansion of Indo Anatolians out of the Manych Steppe and N. Caucasus Piedmont. One group (Z622 and A28999 branches) moved west over the Black Sea steppe with the early Yamnaya (this is irrefutable now) and another group (J2b L283*) moved south through the Caucasus to Armenia and after that, as far west as central Turkey.

Could you explain this "irrefutable" model ? Yet it is still very foggy to me.
WHEN are you placing the movement toward the west ? With what place of arrival ?
What would be an indication favoring a Yamnayan-related diffusion of J-L283 toward the west ... would be to find some something breaking J-Z615 within the steppe (the likelyhood of that is "abyssmall").
Yet, what is found around the Black-Sea is purely J-L283* (which tends to indicates that J-Z622-->J-Z585 didn't incubated within the steppe).
If these mutations occured around the Caucasus, the displacement had to be nearly comcomittent with them (with a maximal gap of ~100-200 years).

For instance, the model I consider the most likely as of the data we have is :
1) J-L283 around North Caucasus pre-3500 BCE (attested by ancient DNA)
2) J-L283 attested ~2700 BCE right were Usatavo culture used to be
3) Gigantic diversity center around Tyrrhenian sea ~3500-3100 BCE
--> This clade passed from Caucasus to Tuscany with the diffusion of Arsenical-Copper metallurgy ~3500 BCE (an archeologically attested diffusion that for some reasons peoples here don't want to acknowledge ...).
This movement involved small groups of migrants diffusing part of the Caucasian Eneolithic package related to the Maykop sphere of influence.
Usatovo was another recipient of this cultural influence.

To my knowledge it is the only model aligning with :
--> Known ancient DNA samples
--> Diversity spatio-temporal structure of the clade
--> Archeological knowledge


Pre-4000 BCE, the story is more complicated and hard to settle with current data.
qpadm or PCA are as usefull in this case as they are for modern European fine ancestry inversion (not working well and completely overtiffting).
There is a lack of peculiar drifts for the concerned sub-populations, and thus what we are probing is just the weighting of ~4 deep ancestry sources that were mixing at different levels around the caucasus.

J-L283 could have integrated the Caucasus nearly anytime between ~6000 and 4000 BCE, so many model can pass because we are dealing with fine structure and many population movements.

The most likely to me as of today, is that J-L283 injection is related with the genetic pulse that also gave rise to the Maykop progenitors ~4000 BCE. But that consideration is only based on later migration mecanism involving J-L283, thus I wouldn't be categoric on this part, what we need to settle this question is pre-4000 BCE samples on the J-L283 line ...

 

[Pax Augusta]

--> This clade passed from Caucasus to Tuscany with the diffusion of Arsenical-Copper metallurgy ~3500 BCE (an archeologically attested diffusion that for some reasons peoples here don't want to acknowledge ...).
This movement involved small groups of migrants diffusing part of the Caucasian Eneolithic package related to the Maykop sphere of influence.
Usatovo was another recipient of this cultural influence.

If I remember correctly, it is the J-L283 found in Sardinia (ancient DNA) that may have arrived in that time frame, and not those found in Tuscany (or other areas of historic Eturia), where instead they are all clades suggesting more recent arrivals toward the end of the Bronze Age.

 

[Archetype0ne]

As long as we argue in good faith I will chip in.

It really depends what you mean by Yamnaya, which since Southern Arc, Origin of IE, and Caucasus Pastoralist papers has settled into a consensus far different than what we had preceding these papers.

That is for good reasons. Since the hundreds of new samples we have a picture of the pre-Yamnaya steppe which was very similar to Sredni Stih, only differentiated on a cline.
These pre-Yamnaya had cultural elements very similar to Yamnaya, such as burial practices, but they were both genetically and technologically very different. Genetically they were mostly replace and absorbed with the core Yamnaya moving west. The core Yamnaya can not be modeled with pre Yamnaya, and here comes L283.

As of the ZO1002 sample we know that L283 fell in the Early Yamnaya cluster, genetically falling in the Remontoye like admixture that gave rise to the Core Yamnaya, but also culturally this burial shows synchretic practices similar to both pre-Yamnaya (red ochre, tumulus) and Caucasus Eneolithic (buried laying to the side in a crouched position, stone slabs).

Was ZO1002 EHG? Most likely not. But neither was core Yamnaya. Sure pre-Yamnaya could be modeled with CHG+EHG, but core-Yamnaya can not. It requires a mix of Steppe Neolithic + Caucasus neolithic. Exactly this mix can model both the core-Yamnaya in the steppe, but also the IE admixed people in EBA Anatolia.

Most people arguing against it seem not to have looked at the extensive hypothesis testing in the last three papers. And are stuck to the time neither these samples or papers existed. Where there was no distinction between Neolithic pre-Yamnaya and Eneolithic core-Yamnaya, and into false assumptions were Yamnaya is EHG a priori to any argument.

The samples and papers are out there now, all else is sophistry.

 

[Pax Augusta]

Thus, there is now a growing body of evidence, using ancient DNA, suggesting that J2b L283 is one of the lineages associated with the expansion of Indo Anatolians out of the Manych Steppe and N. Caucasus Piedmont. One group (Z622 and A28999 branches) moved west over the Black Sea steppe with the early Yamnaya (this is irrefutable now) and another group (J2b L283*) moved south through the Caucasus to Armenia and after that, as far west as central Turkey.

Do you mean Volga-Manych Steppe? I here admit that I have fallen behind in accurately reading the most recent studies on the formation of Indo-European languages. So, the picture they are proposing is still not entirely clear to me. But isn't it still too early as a date to talk about Indo-Anatolian?

 

[Archetype0ne]

If I remember correctly, it is the J-L283 found in Sardinia (ancient DNA) that may have arrived in that time frame, and not those found in Tuscany (or other areas of historic Eturia), where instead they are all clades suggesting more recent arrivals toward the end of the Bronze Age.

Source?

Even the 1300BC Nuragic L283s have 5-10% Steppe. Them arrived in Sardinia when Nurages where first attested to have reached from the mainland in the 1700s BC, and admixed into the EEF rich locals is the simplest explanation. Certainly far more likely, given we have the earliest Yamnaya sample 4000BC in Zolotareva, and even coreYamnaya sample 2500BC in Moldova.

 

[Pax Augusta]

Source?

Even the 1300BC Nuragic L283s have 5-10% Steppe. Them arrived in Sardinia when Nurages where first attested to have reached from the mainland in the 1700s BC, and admixed into the EEF rich locals is the simplest explanation. Certainly far more likely, given we have the earliest Yamnaya sample 4000BC in Zolotareva, and even coreYamnaya sample 2500BC in Moldova.

Perhaps I have not been clear. I am saying that among the J-L283s found in Sardinia and Tuscany (but it also applies to the rest of Etruria) those that have clades that suggest an earlier arrival are those found in Sardinia, and not those found in Tuscany. I am not saying that those found in Sardinia arrived around 3500-3100 BCE.

 

[Archetype0ne]

Russia_Steppe_LateEneolithic_o1 is the L283 sample. It can be modeled as Remontnoye a mixture of Steppe Eneolithic + Caucasus Eneolithic. What gave rise to coreYamnaya was the mixture of Remontnoye into the Sredni Stih cline. CoreYamnaya then exapnded into pre-Yamnaya territory alongside technologies such as metal, wheel, horseriding, and sheep and other animal domestication.

What you see here:
earlyYamnaya_L283_4000BC_Steppe -> coreYamnaya_L283_2500BC_Moldova:


->Mokrin_L283_2000BC;

->EBA_Vucedol_Steppe_outlier -> Cetina_L283's_post2000BC;

->Albania_EBA_R1b AND Albania_MBA_L283

Meanwhile lets look at Anatolia Eneolithic/EBA:

So not only can this Remontoye explain the rise of CoreYamnaya, but also model 25% of the ancestry of the OldHittites...

 

[Polska]

Russia_Steppe_LateEneolithic_o1 is the L283 sample. It can be modeled as Remontnoye a mixture of Steppe Eneolithic + Caucasus Eneolithic. What gave rise to coreYamnaya was the mixture of Remontnoye into the Sredni Stih cline. CoreYamnaya then exapnded into pre-Yamnaya territory alongside technologies such as metal, wheel, horseriding, and sheep and other animal domestication.

What you see here:
earlyYamnaya_L283_4000BC_Steppe -> coreYamnaya_L283_2500BC_Moldova:


->Mokrin_L283_2000BC;

->EBA_Vucedol_Steppe_outlier -> Cetina_L283's_post2000BC;

->Albania_EBA_R1b AND Albania_MBA_L283

Meanwhile lets look at Anatolia Eneolithic/EBA:

So not only can this Remontoye explain the rise of CoreYamnaya, but also model 25% of the ancestry of the OldHittites...

Do you still have your qpadm run for Areni 1? I think it was around 45% Russia Steppe Late Eneolithic Outlier.

Thanks for posting these.

 

[Ghurier]

If I remember correctly, it is the J-L283 found in Sardinia (ancient DNA) that may have arrived in that time frame, and not those found in Tuscany (or other areas of historic Eturia), where instead they are all clades suggesting more recent arrivals toward the end of the Bronze Age.

Sardinian samples are interesting because they provide a Z622 spot of diversity on a single Nuragic site.

If you want them to arrive around ~1300 BCE in Sardinia, it didn't work because of there admixture.
You can find some proponents that these clades would have been injected by Cetina culture (~1800 BCE). Except that it didn't work, Cetina is bascially J-Z597 expansion, if anything Cetina dudes would injects J-Z597, maybe J-Z615 at worst.
The problem with the Tyrrhenian clades is that they are all upstream (by nearly ~1 milleniun), and saves J-Z615 are completely absent of western Balkans.

You have ~8 lineages spawned from J-Z622 to J-Z585 expansion (~3500-3100 BCE),
--> 6 of the can by rooted around Tyrrhenian sea.
--> 3 (4) of them are exclusive to Tyrrhenian sea.
--> 1 is exclusive to Dominican republic ... this is interesting per-se, but I won't draw conclusion on an isolated sample like that ... but it might indicate something very interesting and relevant to the model I propose.
--> 1 had a later massive expansion, diffusing on a broad area during Bronze-Age and Iron-Age (likely starting from ~eastern-Alps when falling under BB-influences).


Making J-Z622 enter Sardinia and diffuse from here ~3500 BCE is at odds with archeology.
It is easier to have an original clump establishing in Eneolitic Tuscany, then diffusing few clades toward Sardinia around ~3000 BCE.
It aligns better with archeology.

You also have to spawn Z615 toward eastern Alps, and that would match Eneolithic Tuscany influence over North-Eastern Italy.
All that is well established. To follow J-L283, just follow copper metallurgy.

This story is now completely outplaying any alternative ...
Once we will have coverage a good coverage of Eneolitic Tuscany, J-Z622 will show up.
Everything work for this model, I never heard about a working alternative able to explain all the data.

After, of course there is a big ideological bias at play, with peoples wanting hard to connect themselves to Yamnayan and some fantasy that are linked to this population.


PS: the lack of anything more derived than J-L283 down the line of J-Z622 around Caucasus or the steppe is a killer for the Yamnayan displacement proponents.
It just completely fails to adress the spatial structuration of J-L283 ... to a point that the proponents of these non-sense are just dodging this point, because they have no solutions ...
Still, they want to be Yamnayans ...

 

[Polska]

Do you mean Volga-Manych Steppe? I here admit that I have fallen behind in accurately reading the most recent studies on the formation of Indo-European languages. So, the picture they are proposing is still not entirely clear to me. But isn't it still too early as a date to talk about Indo-Anatolian?

Yes, Zolotarevka (sometimes spelled Zolotaryevka) is in the middle of the Manych steppe halfway between Nal’chik and the Lower Don (Rostov). Trojet has updated the J2b L283 map. Zolotarevka (ZO1002) is the black balloon.

J2b-L283 ancient DNA - Google My Maps

This database contains all published Y haplogroup J2b-L283 ancient DNA samples. Sample details can be seen by clicking the icons. Subclade definitions based on YFull YTree: https://www.yfull.com/tree/J-L283/ Maintained by Flor Veseli ([email protected]), a J2b-L283 researcher. Update log...

www.google.com

As far as the Indo Anatolian split, the Genetic Origins of Indo Europeans places it between 4400-4000 BCE between the N. Caucasus and Berezhnovka. Zolotarevka and Remontnoye are the geographic midpoint between these 2 locations.

Based on ArchetypeOne’s qpadm runs, it looks like ZO1002 is a good fit for this movement out of the steppe into Armenia and then Turkey (eastern route through Caucasus).

 

[Ghurier]

Perhaps I have not been clear. I am saying that among the J-L283s found in Sardinia and Tuscany (but it also applies to the rest of Etruria) those that have clades that suggest an earlier arrival are those found in Sardinia, and not those found in Tuscany. I am not saying that those found in Sardinia arrived around 3500-3100 BCE.

The case is complicated because you have a pile-up signal on Tuscany ...
Indeed, you have a later re-injection coming from Cetina expansion, and even likely coming from Celts for some very specific subcaldes.

To explains my full model :
--> J-L283 Caucasus within Maykop are of influence
--> Injected ~3500 BCE around Eneolitic Tuscany with Arsenical-Copper metallurgy (see C. Jeunesse 2020 for details of the cultural contacts)
--> From Eneolitic Tuscany, J-Z615 exited toward North-Eastern Italy following Copper-Metallurgical influences (see papers by Dolfini et al. 2020)
--> J-Z597, like J-YP91 are clade that fell under BB-influence and expanded, as a periphery for the first one, and within the network for the second.
--> J-Z597 expansion encompass Italy and retro-diffused some clades toward Italy. Dispersion of clade is not a one direction process.

One mistake some people are always making it to try to draw lines between ancient samples ... as if those ancient samples were their paternal ancestors ... they aren't, they are paternal cousins (most of the time).

What has to be done, is to use the partial footprint given by ancient DNA, and the knowledge of archeoligical contacts to provide a working framework of diffusion (also accounting for modern diversity structure).
You basically have statistical probes (like clades cross-correlation), ancient samples, archeological connection ... and the game is to build a working framework able to put everything together.

If someone have a solution to explains me how a purely J-Z597 (~2500 BCE expansion) population managed to inject J-Z622-->J-Z585 (pre-3000 BCE) samples around Tyrrhenian sea around ~1800 BCE (whereas no diversity is found at this level in Western Balkans, both for ancient and modern samples) ... I really want to hear about it.
But as usual, when such point is rised, our Yamnayan fans go silent.

 

[Archetype0ne]

Sardinian samples are interesting because they provide a Z622 spot of diversity on a single Nuragic site.

If you want them to arrive around ~1300 BCE in Sardinia, it didn't work because of there admixture.
You can find some proponents that these clades would have been injected by Cetina culture (~1800 BCE). Except that it didn't work, Cetina is bascially J-Z597 expansion, if anything Cetina dudes would injects J-Z597, maybe J-Z615 at worst.
The problem with the Tyrrhenian clades is that they are all upstream (by nearly ~1 milleniun), and saves J-Z615 are completely absent of western Balkans.

You have ~8 lineages spawned from J-Z622 to J-Z585 expansion (~3500-3100 BCE),
--> 6 of the can by rooted around Tyrrhenian sea.
--> 3 (4) of them are exclusive to Tyrrhenian sea.
--> 1 is exclusive to Dominican republic ... this is interesting per-se, but I won't draw conclusion on an isolated sample like that ... but it might indicate something very interesting and relevant to the model I propose.
--> 1 had a later massive expansion, diffusing on a broad area during Bronze-Age and Iron-Age (likely starting from ~eastern-Alps when falling under BB-influences).


Making J-Z622 enter Sardinia and diffuse from here ~3500 BCE is at odds with archeology.
It is easier to have an original clump establishing in Eneolitic Tuscany, then diffusing few clades toward Sardinia around ~3000 BCE.
It aligns better with archeology.

You also have to spawn Z615 toward eastern Alps, and that would match Eneolithic Tuscany influence over North-Eastern Italy.
All that is well established. To follow J-L283, just follow copper metallurgy.

This story is now completely outplaying any alternative ...
Once we will have coverage a good coverage of Eneolitic Tuscany, J-Z622 will show up.
Everything work for this model, I never heard about a working alternative able to explain all the data.

After, of course there is a big ideological bias at play, with peoples wanting hard to connect themselves to Yamnayan and some fantasy that are linked to this population.


PS: the lack of anything more derived than J-L283 down the line of J-Z622 around Caucasus or the steppe is a killer for the Yamnayan displacement proponents.
It just completely fails to adress the spatial structuration of J-L283 ... to a point that the proponents of these non-sense are just dodging this point, because they have no solutions ...
Still, they want to be Yamnayans ...

You never heard an alternative?
We even bet at one point before the Moldova or Steppe Eneolithic samples were known, that future samples would decide this. Then Southern Arc, IE Origins, Caucasus Pastoralists papers came, along with the Western Europe paper. We found no Neolithic or EBA L283 of any kind in Western Europe, let alone of an EEF profile. Yet we found the coreYamnaya and Remontoye profile in the Steppe. For any sane, good faith hobbyist that would be good news, but somehow not for you. I wonder why.
You just are not willing to listen to other people, or to yourself. Back then I was arguing Remontoye and Aknashen into coreYamnaya, and guess what samples we got? Putting your head in the sand won't change the world on the surface.

Sardinia has had Steppe intrusion since EBA, let alone 1750BC when Nuragic intruders entered the island. Might want to read the paper where the L283 Nuragics were analyzed, "Ancient genomes reveal structural shifts after the arrival of Steppe-related ancestry in the Italian Peninsula".

You will somehow have to deal with this, and adjust your theory to actually fit the data. Instead of this sophistry pretending there is any epistemological value to your diversification models. That diversification could have happened in the Steppe (and a number of other locations) for all we know, and associated populations moved in tandem into a number of regions, including Tyrrhenian sea (just not in whatever anachronistic timeline you are proposing). What empirical conclusion can you derive from your model then?

And no, this profile did not exist in Neolithic Sardinia:

As these Nuragic profiles are not pure EEF, obviously they can not model Neolithic Sardinia.

But Neolithic Sardinia + Remotnoye-rich-population (in whatever vehicle, whether coreYamnaya, Cetina, Italy_BA_L283 and even the Etruscan_L283 profiles) can easily model the Nuragics.

So lets lay down the myth to rest. We have 0/Hundreds of L283 with any profile lacking Steppe/Yamnaya/Remontoye.
And no diversification model based on TMRCAs has any epistemological or predictive value here.

 

[Polska]

The case is complicated because you have a pile-up signal on Tuscany ...
Indeed, you have a later re-injection coming from Cetina expansion, and even likely coming from Celts for some very specific subcaldes.

To explains my full model :
--> J-L283 Caucasus within Maykop are of influence
--> Injected ~3500 BCE around Eneolitic Tuscany with Arsenical-Copper metallurgy (see C. Jeunesse 2020 for details of the cultural contacts)
--> From Eneolitic Tuscany, J-Z615 exited toward North-Eastern Italy following Copper-Metallurgical influences (see papers by Dolfini et al. 2020)
--> J-Z597, like J-YP91 are clade that fell under BB-influence and expanded, as a periphery for the first one, and within the network for the second.
--> J-Z597 expansion encompass Italy and retro-diffused some clades toward Italy. Dispersion of clade is not a one direction process.

One mistake some people are always making it to try to draw lines between ancient samples ... as if those ancient samples were their paternal ancestors ... they aren't, they are paternal cousins (most of the time).

What has to be done, is to use the partial footprint given by ancient DNA, and the knowledge of archeoligical contacts to provide a working framework of diffusion (also accounting for modern diversity structure).
You basically have statistical probes (like clades cross-correlation), ancient samples, archeological connection ... and the game is to build a working framework able to put everything together.

If someone have a solution to explains me how a purely J-Z597 (~2500 BCE expansion) population managed to inject J-Z622-->J-Z585 (pre-3000 BCE) samples around Tyrrhenian sea around ~1800 BCE (whereas no diversity is found at this level in Western Balkans, both for ancient and modern samples) ... I really want to hear about it.
But as usual, when such point is rised, our Yamnayan fans go silent.

You have no ancient DNA samples to support your now outdated theory, whereas the ancient samples from Zolotarevka (early Yamnaya) and Crihana Veche (Core Yamnaya) represent the path that your ancestors took en route to the Balkans and beyond, whether you like it or not. You need to learn to update your ideas as ancient J2b L283 samples roll in, rather than dogmatically adhering to old ideas that are downright contradicted by recent studies and ancient sampling.

You keep bringing up the Bell Beaker thing. It’s obvious at this point that the “Bell Beaker” ancestry seen in Cetina samples comes from females and not the J2b L283 Yamnaya associated ancestry.

You have this strange fixation on Sardinia. People move. The Yamnaya were quite mobile. These lineages would have formed north of the Black Sea before moving into the Balkans with early Yamnaya movements. Then there were subsequent Yamnaya movements that would have displaced earlier Yamnaya settlers in the Balkans. For example, the Yamnaya 3rd wave migration lasted from 3100-2500 BCE. I’ve also mentioned to you that there was an even earlier Yamnaya migration with the Kvityana Yamnaya, possibly as early as 3300 BCE. We lack extensive sampling from Kvityana, Mikhaylovka I, and Mikhaylovka II along the Sea of Azov coast in Ukraine. These groups are precisely where the Core Yamnaya founder event occurred between (approximately) 3600-3400 BCE between the Don and Dnipro Rivers.

Look at the Sankey diagram. Maykop is a separate group relative to the J2b L283 late steppe Eneolithic outlier, which is a mix of Caucasus Eneolithic and Steppe Eneolithic.

For the last time, formation of Core Yamnaya and the third wave migration of Eastern European Yamnaya:

 

[PaleoRevenge]

You keep bringing up the Bell Beaker thing. It’s obvious at this point that the “Bell Beaker” ancestry seen in Cetina samples comes from females and not the J2b L283 Yamnaya associated ancestry.

That is true, this Beaker admixture entered coastal and northern Illyrian, but it worked it's way all the way to the most southern Illyrians by Iron Age.

Cetina males(BA J2b-L283) have less WHG than Cinamak(IA northern Albania). By Iron Age the Illyrians around Cetina had noticeably higher WHG than Cinamak.

 

[Ghurier]

You will somehow have to deal with this, and adjust your theory to actually fit the data. Instead of this sophistry pretending there is any epistemological value to your diversification models. That diversification could have happened in the Steppe (and a number of other locations) for all we know, and associated populations moved in tandem into a number of regions, including Tyrrhenian sea (just not in whatever anachronistic timeline you are proposing).

As these Nuragic profiles are not pure EEF, obviously they can not model Neolithic Sardinia.

But Neolithic Sardinia + Remotnoye-rich-population (in whatever vehicle, whether coreYamnaya, Cetina, Italy_BA_L283 and even the Etruscan_L283 profiles) can easily model the Nuragics.

So lets lay down the myth to rest. We have 0/Hundreds of L283 with any profile lacking Steppe/Yamnaya/Remontoye.
And no diversification model based on TMRCAs has any epistemological or predictive value here.

It is exactly what I said, you just failed to adress the geographical J-L283 diversity structure.
See, you just didn't adressed the J-Z622 --> J-Z585 diversity levels.

For some reasons, you want to make them arrives in Sardinia ~1800 BCE or later (I noticed that you are mentionning EBA now ... you are making some progress, but cultural contacts are going up to LCA to be exact).

Here you explain nothing.
How do you create this specific diversity spot ?

I help you about what would be the requirement for a logical demonstration :
-If you want to claim that the Tyrrhenian cluster is the result of a later migration carrying very old diversity, you need to provide a proof that such diversity existed at some point in time at the location you chose as an origin.
-If you can't provide such a proof, you need a least a mecanism to erase the traces of this diversity cluster during later/modern times.
-Yet, you claim that the Tyrrhenian cluster is the results of many migrations, from region that didn't contains diversity at this level (this is non-sens, it is like claiming that you would follow F migration patern using C, because they both descend from CF).


More problematic is that the Tyrrhenian cluster have structured diversity ... which didn't fits with a significantly late repartition of the clades (or you need to have a different path for each ... which is even worst on aa statistical perspective).
Nothing work in what you proposed ...

You have no ancient DNA samples to support your now outdated theory, whereas the ancient samples from Zolotarevka (early Yamnaya) and Crihana Veche (Core Yamnaya) represent the path that your ancestors took en route to the Balkans and beyond, whether you like it or not.

I do have a model that explains all those samples ... With cultural contacts that can be backuped by published papers.
If you want to contest the concerned cultural connections, feel free to try to publish a paper (I'll gladly read your ideas on archeology once peer-reviewed).
there is nothing outdated here, I can explain all aspects of the data ... whereas you can't, because you will always fail to explain the Tyrrhenian cluster with your late Yamanyan belief.

There is no L283 samples in Tuscany Eneolitic ?
Do you know why ?
Because we didn't have coverage of the area (and J-L283 arrived as a small group of migrants that wasn't a significant part of the population).

I know you are anoyed that the Yamnayan model is failing in many aspects:
--> Diversity ? Fails
--> Ancient samples ? Fails, not a single derived sample down the J-Z622 line in the Steppe, only remants in the Maykopian sphere of influence at J-283 level (therefore matching my version rather than yours. Your version that should have many samples in the steppe derived across the J-L283 --> J-Z597 line).

You keep bringing up the Bell Beaker thing. It’s obvious at this point that the “Bell Beaker” ancestry seen in Cetina samples comes from females and not the J2b L283 Yamnaya associated ancestry.

Did you read me ?
J-Z597 is a clade that got absorbed by BBs ... not originating from BBs ... This is the whole concept of "being absorbed" or "being influenced".
Here again, Cetina being a syncretic culture involving BBs is not an idea of mine, but is coming from serious published papers.

Where exactly J-Z597 got absorbed ? This is a potentially interesting question, ~South-eastern Alps is the more likely to me (but there is some open space about the exact location, because J-Z597 didn't have any compact diversity signal).

Interestingly, the male to female small bias you speak about comes in the context of a later expansion that concerns Y15058 (not J-Z597) ...
You have no samples that are old enough to probe the moment at which J-Z597 entered expansion and under what exact circumstances.
Sounds to me like someone trying to study Charlemagne times using ancient DNA from Louis XIV times.
If you consider that "obvious knowledge", then you have serious methodological issues.
No, post-2000 BCE DNA samples are not informing you about the circumstances under which J-Z597 expanded ~2400 BCE (in particular when speaking of sex-admixture-bias, that have a very limited depth in time).

You have this strange fixation on Sardinia.

Not that much (this place appear to be relevant for the discussion) ... I'm interested about the gigantic diversity spot that exists from J-Z622 to J-Z585 around Tyrrhenian sea (involving Sardinia, Tuscany, Sicilia ... Islands and mountaineous regions are very good to preserve old isolated lineages).
After, we even have something more crazy stuff than this modern diversity spot about Sardinia : the Nuragic Sardinians, with J-Z585 and J-YP91 on the same site at a time when there is almost no L283 on the Island ...

I'll try to explain you the reasoning (again),
--> We know J-L283 originate from the Caucasus
--> We know J-Z622-->J-Z585 have a gigantic diversity spot (~3500 BCE) around Tyrrhenian sea (6 lineages over 8 that can be rooted there, with 3/4 among them being exclusive to this location)
--> We know that cultural contacts existed around that time between these two regions (you know the ref by now if read me).

I have two spatial points, and an archeological connection at the right time (with respect to the phylogeny) ... of course I will root for that (that's what any unbiased person would do).

On the other side, you are totally unable to explain the Tyrrhenian clades by anything alse than

People move. The Yamnaya were quite mobile.

Whereas in fact it is what kills your idea ...
If you diversify them in the steppe, you would spread J-L283-->J-Z615 clades on the Steppic footprint (like what happen to R-Z2103) ...
It is not what we observe, what we observe is J-L283 level clades spreaded over what is a Maykopian-influence footprint (see C. Jeunesse 2020).

Explains me how you source Tyrrhenian shores with Z622+/Z615- samples using a source population that up to now unfolded purely Z615+(and even purely Z597+) ?
Where is this magical cluster of Z622+ that you want to use to source Tyrrhenian shores ? More and more you wait in time since Z622 diversification, less and less likely it is dooable without a big geographical area containing such lineages (but then less and less likely it is to have structed patern at the destination place).

Why trying so hard to make them wait ? Especially considering that we have no identified location that could serve as a hub ... when in fact we already have a cultural connection around 3500 BCE ?
Why going for a very complexe an unlikely migration over thousands of years ... rather than going for a natural and logical solution ?

Do you know why ? Because you have a mandatory requirement in your reasoning, you want to pass by late-Yamnayan.
I don't have ideological requirement, thus I root for the most likely solution, that didn't require magical migration process during thousands of years.

Look at the Sankey diagram. Maykop is a separate group relative to the J2b L283 late steppe Eneolithic outlier, which is a mix of Caucasus Eneolithic and Steppe Eneolithic.

That's debatable, you aren't forced to use Caucasus Eneolitic as a source (but it indeed works).
You can instead use "HajjiFiruz_C" as a source for exemple (I let you find the combination that works).
Is that your claim that having a J-L283 amond LSE_o around ~3800 BCE make it totally impossible for it to be inside Maykopian sphere of influence by ~3600 BCE ? That's a strong claim, with little to nothing to support it.

I also think you mis-read the paper ... they didn't claim that the Caucasus eneolitic components that sources Maykop and LSE_o splitted ~5000-4500 BCE ... they are just showing that Caucasus eneolitic sourced these two populations (in their model).

Thus, we don't know by how many centuries is this sample separated from J-L283 main lineage.
We also don't know when the LSE_o mixture formed (this is not what they tested with "dates").
Therefore, you can't be sure that J-L283 is not a recent arrival from the Caucasus (i.e., ~few generations) ...


You are using a lot of assumptions here.

If assumptions are fine when you try to bluid a model, and indeed, there is space for J-L283 to have passed by the Caucasus Eneolitic component ... your hypothesis are pointless to oppose any alternative model.
And spoilers, regarding the potential modalities by which ZO1002 ended where it ended are legions ... thats why on this topic I wouldn't be categoric, we need more samples.

We know that starting ~3500 BCE J-L283 was a vector of metallurgical progress.
But was he before that, or did he started to be ~3500 BCE ?
Under the assumption that he was, we can make some educated guesses about the way he integrated north-Caucasus ... but this an unsafe hypothesis ... and without it we are blind.

Qpadm and/or PCA are mostly "blind" about mixtures in this area and time period ... because many models can fit.
Here, you are entering what is called overfitting, this is the same issue that the one we are facing inside modern European ancestry with shitty PCA or qpadm-like based diagnostics (I don't know if you are familiar with that).

Let see how it will unfold once Eneolitic Tuscany will receive good coverage ... I have personnaly little to no doubts, the statistical level for this conclusion is even higher than my claim about Hallstatt presence of for J-Z597 during IA.
That's why I'm forced to stick with ~Tuscany by ~3500-3100 BCE ... because that's what my statistical estimators are calling.
And I'm that kind of dude, I follow the data ... if the data were saying Yamnaya, I would root for Yamnaya, yet it isn't the case.

 

[PaleoRevenge]

Russia_Steppe_LateEneolithic_o1 is the L283 sample. It can be modeled as Remontnoye a mixture of Steppe Eneolithic + Caucasus Eneolithic. What gave rise to coreYamnaya was the mixture of Remontnoye into the Sredni Stih cline. CoreYamnaya then exapnded into pre-Yamnaya territory alongside technologies such as metal, wheel, horseriding, and sheep and other animal domestication.

What you see here:
earlyYamnaya_L283_4000BC_Steppe -> coreYamnaya_L283_2500BC_Moldova:


->Mokrin_L283_2000BC;

->EBA_Vucedol_Steppe_outlier -> Cetina_L283's_post2000BC;

->Albania_EBA_R1b AND Albania_MBA_L283

Meanwhile lets look at Anatolia Eneolithic/EBA:

So not only can this Remontoye explain the rise of CoreYamnaya, but also model 25% of the ancestry of the OldHittites...

Some of those models fail, more importantly R-PF7562 model fails. When one needs working models, I'm your huckleberry. First thing first, geography lesson.

The oldest R-PF7562 in the Balkans are Cinamak and Romania-Bulgaria-Serbia border region. The Romanian samples is older by 150 years, the distribution strongly suggests this branch of Yamanya forming the Bubanj-Hum culture complex(and it's sibling Armenchori). None of these EBA cultures have been suggested as the forerunners of Illyrians, it's not even in discussion in archeology.

The Cinamak sample is likely a first generation born in the area, which means his neolithic source would likely be from southern Serbia or Kosovo, which sadly we have no samples of.

2nd point: An actual passing model for R-PF7562 EBA Cinamak.

These R-PF7562/3 population, are the only samples that model successfully with Albanian neolithic, something that does not work with Illyrian samples.
Refer to older work here: https://www.eupedia.com/forum/threads/south-albania-tumulus-dna-samples.44180/page-11


Need some BA Illyrian models? I got you dog.

As was noted by your friend, Illyrians got Beakerized, they went on a rampage seizing BA Italian women.