Free and independent Kurdistan is coming soon.

LeBrok

LeBrok

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When "brilliant" George Bush invaded Iraq and killed Saddam Hussein he unleashed ethnic and religious forces who were kept in check by Saddam. Under recent Iraqi Government these forces couldn't or didn't want to find a middle ground under Iraqis fragile democracy. We also should blame Great Britain for arbitrarily carving borders of countries which never existed in the past, throwing ethnic mixes under one roof. Perhaps they should have just left, do nothing and let interested parties play the power game 50 years ago. Unfortunately, all mess was kept in check by British then by local aristocrats and finally by dictator Saddam. When finally George Bush created power vacuum all hell broke lose, especially hundreds years grievances between Shia and Sunni Muslims boiled up very quickly.

Recent news from Iraq tells a terrifying story of Sunni radical Muslims, affiliated with Al Qaeda, taking over second largest city in Iraq, Mosul and right now are marching on Baghdad. The group is called ISIS and its goal is to create Islamic state from parts of Syria and Iraq, and of course kill heretics Shia. Supposedly they are so radical that even Al Qaeda don't want to be affiliated with them anymore.

I think, that this messy situation in Iraq, and basically disintegration of government and army control over the country, can give opportunity and encourage Kurds to close their borders for protection of their population and declare independence. I think that the decisive factor will be the Sunni population of Kurdish region. They are the majority religion of Kurdistan and it will be interesting to see if they join Iraqi Sunni fighting Shia and will want Islamic state too. However Kurds are generally moderate, more tolerant, and even pro-western. No coalition soldier was killed by Kurds. I'm not geopolitical expert and I might be easily wrong, but I hope they will grab this opportunity and become hosts in their first own country.

iraq-ethnic-groups-map.gif


ISIS, the Sunni radical rebels, are well organized, have equipment and money. They took over and run for business power generating facilities in Syria. They are reports that they sell electrical power back to Al-Assad regime making pretty good income. Now, as first big offensive, they took over oil fields around Mosul. Obviously they know of importance of economy to war efforts.
http://www.vo*****/2014/6/12/5802824/how-isis-is-exploiting-the-economics-of-syrias-civil-war

KURDISH NEWS
http://kurdishquestion.com/kurdista...-syriac-christians-against-islamic-state.html
 
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the problem is that Kurdistan is divided over 3 or 4 countries : Iraq, Iran, Turkey (Syria)
Iran and Turkey will not allow Kurdistan independance in Iraq as they are afraid the movement will spill over to their own territory as well

the powerplay between Shia and Sunni is as old as Islam itself
Islam is the best instance that religion was invented by some shrude people who are only interested in maintaining their own power base
 
LeBrok said:
When "brilliant" Gorge Bush invaded Iraq and killed Saddam Hussein he unleashed ethnic and religious forces who were kept in check by Saddam. Under recent Iraqi Government these forces couldn't or didn't want to find a middle ground under Iraqis fragile democracy. We also should blame Great Britain for arbitrarily carving borders of countries which never existed in the past, throwing ethnic mixes under one roof. Perhaps they should have just left, do nothing and let interested parties play the power game 50 years ago. Unfortunately, all mess was kept in check by British then by local aristocrats and finally by dictator Saddam. When finally Gorge Bush created power vacuum all hell broke lose, especially hundreds years grievances between Shia and Sunni Muslims boiled up very quickly.

Recent news from Iraq tells a terrifying story of Sunni radical Muslims, affiliated with Al Qaeda, taking over second largest city in Iraq, Mosul and right now are marching on Baghdad. Their goal is to create Islamic state from parts of Syria and Iraq, and of course kill heretics Shia.

I think, that this messy situation in Iraq, and basically disintegration of government and army control over the country, can give opportunity and encourage Kurds to close their borders for protection of their population and declare independence. I think that the decisive factor will be the Sunni population of Kurd's region. They are the majority religion of Kurdistan and it will be interesting to see if they join Iraqi Sunni fighting Shia and will want Islamic state too. However Kurds are generally moderate, more tolerant, and even pro-western. No coalition soldier was killed by Kurds. I'm not geopolitical expert and I might be easily wrong, but I hope they will grab this opportunity and become hosts in their first own country.

iraq-ethnic-groups-map.gif
Click to expand...
Kurds deserve their own state. They are 30 mil strong in the region. In Iraq alone they are 7 Mil. If 250 000 Montenegrins have a state why not Kurds? I don't see Kurds as a real threat to the area. They have not shown that they can fight. 2 mil Chechens took on Rusia and almost wan. If I was Turkey I will support Kurdistan state in Iraq. It is said that in that region there are 45 bil barrels of oil. That means in a short term that will be the richest are in terms of money. So Kurds will emigrate there from Turkey lowering the number of popultion in Turkey.
 
The Sunni attack on Baghdad became inevitable once the Saudis talked George Bush into attacking Iraq. It was inevitable that Iraq would become a sinkhole for the Americans, and that they'd eventually leave a destabilized Iraq that would descend into civil war. The Saudis already have the areas that were once neutral zones between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and once the Saudis have eastern Iraq and Syria, Jordan will soon fall. Then the Saudis will have a common border, so they can pursue their end game of attacking Israel. That won't turn out too well for the Saudis, but they're so far into their medieval mindset that they refuse to believe they won't win their holy war.

And no way will Turkey (or Iran) let the Kurds of Iraq create a separate country. Turkey and Iran will probably collude to share the Kurdish area of northern Iraq. And the Iranians will probably take over the Shiite Arab part of Iraq.
 
The Ukrainian incident set a precedent in territorial integrity and sovereignty. The US and world powers will not allow the disintegration of Iraq into 3 separate independent regions. The US will send drones and military support (money and weapons) to fight off Sunni insurgents and protect Baghdad. It's going to turn into another bloody conflict. The Sunni insurgents are viewed like terrorists, and wont be treated like a civil war.
 
Good points guys about external players in this game.

Saudi Arabia is definitely big supporter of Sunnis in entire region. 85% of Saudis are Sunnis and official and sect royals belong is wahhabi, with highly strict religious rules. Saudis are rich and with this big money they can support whoever they like and influence regional organizations and their power struggle for dominance.
Important as it is it will have bigger consequences for Shia-Sunni war in Iraq than whether Kurds separate or not. Kurds are majority Sunni, so they are not on Saudis priority list to convert or fight. I don't see a good reason for Saudis to oppose an independent Kurdistan. Of course there are other rich oil Sunni states supporting radical groups but Saudi Arabia is the biggest player.

US and european allies don't have great appetite to send troops to support Iraq's government to try to stabilize country again. Thousands US troops are needed to keep Sunni rebels in check, but I don't see Obama making this decision. However he might unleash drones and fighter jets from Turkish bases not too far away. Without this help ISIS ( offshoot of Al Qaeda) might win in Iraq or at least we might have a bloody and long war like in Syria. In West's interest is better to support corrupt government of Iraq than to let Islamic extremists bring new order, or rather new mess. US will supporting the lesser evil.
Traditionally US was sympathetic for Kurds being a part of Iraq to make Iraq stronger, to better counterbalance regional forces against Iran. However at this point they might not be against Kurds closing borders and protecting themselves from radical Islam. The first step towards independance. I think US is generally sympathetic to Kurds. If Kurds strongly want independance US and allies won't oppose much.

It will be interesting to see what will Iran do in this conflict. Being mostly Shia they will definitely send money, equipment or even troops to aid Shia, therefore Iraqi government.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Iran sent two battalions of Iranian Revolutionary Guards to help the Iraqi government in its battle against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS).
Click to expand...
http://www.vo*****/2014/6/12/5804184/iran-deployed-troops-iran-isis
So, paradoxically Iran will be on same side of this issue as the US. If it comes to Kurds case, this might be a different story. Iran obviously don't want to see precedence of free Kurdistan and consequences for their Kurd's territory. But if ISIS is against Kurdistan and Iran fights ISIS it will take ISIS forces and attention from Kurdistan and aid Kurds' independance. Iran has also its economic interests to protect in Iraq. They invested heavily in oil rigs and pumping oil in Iraq. If ISIS wins in Iraq, the Iranians will lose hundreds of billions of dollars in investment and future earnings.
Obviously Iran will not attack Kurds directly, because of quick retaliatory action from US bombers, and the price being too high to pay. Instead they can influence and help Iraqi Shia to fight against Kurds and their independence under umbrella of keeping Iraq together, and Kurds independance being unconstitutional. Same excuse Serbs used to fight Croatia and Bosnia.

I'm not sure how Turkey will react. I doubt they will enter Kurdistan. They would need to physically occupy new Kurdistan to prevent independance. Can you imagine international consequences, sanctions, possible conflict with rest of NATO and US? It is not worth it. Turkey, most likely, will tighten their borders to make sure ISIS elements won't infiltrate their Sunni majority. The last thing they want is to be exposed to these radicals and civil war in their country. Kurds are very peaceful when compared to ISIS.
 
ISIS, the Sunni radical rebels, are well organized, have equipment and money. They took over and run for business power generating facilities in Syria. They are reports that they sell electrical power back to Al-Assad regime making pretty good income. Now, as first big offensive, they took over oil fields around Mosul. Obviously they know of importance of economy to war efforts.
http://www.vo*****/2014/6/12/5802824/how-isis-is-exploiting-the-economics-of-syrias-civil-war
 
It is said that current (8 years in power) Prime Minister of Iraq Al Maliki, has very strong ties with Iran. As shia he was hiding in Iran during Saddam Hussein's regime and has top level friends in Iranian political elite. He was against extending contract for American stay in Iraq, obviously supported in this by Iranian friends, culminating in total withdrawal of US army from Iraq. At the moment Iranians have sent their forces to Iraq to strengthen defences of Baghdad and Shia territory, due to disintegration of Iraqi's army and fast advances of Sunni rebels.
We might see disintegration of old borders, set by colonial powers, and witness creation of new political and state entities. If muslim fundamentalists will stay occupying Shia territory we might see a creation of new Sunni controlled state/Caliphate, made of parts of Iraq, Syria, Jordan and probably Palestine will join, with strong affiliation to Saudi Arabia. On other side Iran will acquire Shia region of Iraq. Even if Iran will not officially do that, they will technically control this region.

Turkey and Egypt will stay in one piece due to very strong armies and strict control of population.

I just hope Kurdistan won't be drawn into the mess and will use this moment to become an independent country.


mid-east-religion.jpg

http://thesinosaudiblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/mid-east-religion.jpg
 
I honesty hope they can become independent and retain Kirkuk. If they manage to drive Isis from Mosul the people of that provice should be allowed to vote to join Kurdistan. I also feel for the plight of the Syrian Kurds in the self declared autonomous government in northern syria. In an ideal world they would be allowed to join with Iraqi Kurdistan.

The Kurds are the most moderate of the cultures in the region and have a secular government. They have been taking in Christians fleeing from Isis bombardment and have been protecting a village of 50,000 cjristians outside of Kurdistan proper. They also have moved to stop massacres of Shia on their doorstep as well. They also have gender equality and are by far the most pro-western people in Iraq.

With Iraq buying Russian and Belorussian warplanes this week and that face that they welcome Syrian airstrikes on thier own territory should speak volumes to us. As LeBrok said earlier they seem to be tied at the hip with Iran as well.


In the news today Obama asked congress for 500 million dollars to train and equip "moderate" Syrian rebels.... He has got to be kidding me! We should not get directly involved in the Shia-Sunni conflict but he should be sending that money to the damn Kurds!
 
Ua'Ronain said:
In the news today Obama asked congress for 500 million dollars to train and equip "moderate" Syrian rebels.... He has got to be kidding me! We should not get directly involved in the Shia-Sunni conflict but he should be sending that money to the damn Kurds!
Click to expand...

I agree, we shouldn't take sides in shia/sunni conflict. It would be our war only to lose. Instead we should support all the moderate and independent countries and populations of the region.
 
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Saladin who fought the Crusaders was a Kurd. I don't quite know how the Kurds fared so badly after all he saved the Islamic empire.
 
I understood what you meant LoBrok.

here is an article about the Iraqi Kurds by National Geographic. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...aq-kurds-independence-kurdistan-sunni-baghdad.

In various news circles it has been reported that Iran has started shelling Kurdish villages (in Iran) near the border with Iraq. Turkey shot a Kurd trying to lower the Turkish flag as well as opening swaths of the Turkish controlled border with Syria to ISIS linked rebels. This is their way of sticking it to Rojava (the autonomous government of Kurds in Northern Syria) Rojava is trying to enter in a mutual defence pact with the KGR in Iraq.


Syrian_civil_war_3.jpg

red is assad
yellow kurds
green free syrian army and grey is ISIS
 
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Some updates...

June 30, 2014
ANKARA,— Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AK Party) Deputy Chairman Hüseyin Çelik has indicated that Turkey will recognize a Kurdish state in northern Iraq if the crisis-stricken country is divided, the Financial Times reported on Saturday.

“If Iraq is divided and it is inevitable, [the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG)] are our brothers. … Unfortunately, the situation in Iraq is not good and it looks like it is going to be divided,” Çelik said in his remarks to the Financial Times.

He also reportedly said that although an independent Kurdish state was previously a reason for war for Turkey, no one has the right to say so now.





June 30, 2014

JERUSALEM, Israel,— The Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu voiced support for Kurdish statehood on Sunday, taking a position that appeared to clash with the U.S. preference to keep sectarian war-torn Iraq united.

Netanyahu asked the international community on Sunday to support Jordan in the fight against "Islamic extremism" and to back the independence of Iraq's Kurds.

"We need to support efforts by the international community to strengthen Jordan and support the aspirations of the Kurds for independence," Netanyahu said in a speech to the Institute of National Security Studies think-tank in Tel Aviv.

His remarks follow reports in Israeli media that officials in Tel Aviv fear al-Qaeda linked Islamic-jihadists from the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham ISIS may extend their control to areas of Jordan after seizing parts of Iraq in recent weeks.

The Kurds have seized on recent sectarian chaos in Iraq to expand their autonomous northern territory to include Kirkuk,www.Ekurd.net which sits on vast oil deposits that could make the independent state many dream of economically viable.

But Iraqi Kurds, who have ethnic compatriots in Iran, Turkey and Syria, have hesitated to declare full independence, one reason being the feared response of neighboring countries.
 
Seams like ISIS misplaced few christian communities around Kurdistan. Do you think US will start acting now with bombings of ISIS positions? They already are flowing food and medical supplies to these communities.
I'm sure drones are in the air above this area.
 
LeBrok said:
Seams like ISIS misplaced few christian communities around Kurdistan. Do you think US will start acting now with bombings of ISIS positions? They already are flowing food and medical supplies to these communities.
I'm sure drones are in the air above this area.
Click to expand...
Am I a prophet or what? :grin:
I heard the news about bombing of ISIS weaponry this morning, Canadian morning.
 
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LeBrok said:
Am I a prophet or what? :grin:
I heard the news about bombing of ISIS weaponry this morning, Canadian morning.
Click to expand...

If not mistaken first bombing of ISIS's posts (+ food supplies) where reported yesterday according to CNN. (or is it the time differnce?) :) I think today they got the first footage.
 
Yep I agree Kurds should have their own state.
 
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