In the thread about the distribution of R1b-Z2103, I started analysing the Y-DNA data from the new Trofimova et al. 2015 paper in Russian (English summary here). I noticed that the Volga-Ural ethnic groups could be divided in four categories:
1) Uralic speakers with over 50% of Uralic Y-DNA (N1c1): Mari, Komi, Udmurts and Besermyans.
2) Uralic speakers with only a little bit of Uralic Y-DNA, but a lot of Germanic, Slavic and Balkanic Y-DNA : Mordvins (aka Mordovians).
3) Turkic speakers with a little Uralic and Turkic (N1c2) Y-DNA, and otherwise mostly Proto-Indo-European Y-DNA (R1a and R1b) : Bashkirs.
4) Turkic speakers with a little Uralic and Turkic (N1c2) Y-DNA, but a lot of Germanic, Slavic and Balkanic Y-DNA : Chuvash and Tatars.
What piqued my interest is the unique blend of Germanic, Slavic and Balkanic lineages found among the Mordovians, Chuvash and Tatars, who live side by side west of the Middle Volga region. This immediately reminded me of the genetic blend presumably brought by the Goths to Italy and Spain as originally discussed here and summarised here.
The combination of Germanic (I1, I2a2a, R1b-U106), Slavic (R1aCTS1211, R1a-Z282 and R1a-M458) and Balkanic (E-M78, G2a3, I2a1b, J1, J2a, J2b) lineages suggests that the Mordovians, Chuvash and Tatars could be descended from a branch of the 4th-century Goths from the Chernyakhov culture in Romania, Moldova and western Ukraine. This is further corroborated by the very strong similarity in names between Moldova and Mordova. Mordovians could therefore be Uralicized Moldovans.
The Near Eastern haplogroups do look as if they had come straight from the Balkans and Carpathians because:
Trofimova et al. 2015 only tests about 50 samples from each ethnicity, which is not very representative in terms of frequencies, but gives a very good idea of what haplogroups are present in each group.
Mordovians
- Germanic : 3.4% of I1, 3.4% of R1b-U106 (aka M405 or S21), 1.7% I2-M223 and 1.7% of R1a-M458
- Slavic : 32% of R1a-CTS1211 and 1.7% of R1a-Z282
- Balkanic : 10.2% of E-M78, 10.2% of J2b, 5.1% of J2a, 3.4% of G2a3b1, and 1.7% of J*.
- Uralic : 10% of N1c1
- Turkic : 0% of N1c2
Chuvash
- Germanic : 7% of I1, and 4.7% of R1a-M458
- Slavic : 18.6% of R1a-CTS1211 and 2.3% of R1a-Z282
- Balkanic : 14% of E-M78, 9.3% of J2a, 4.7% of J2b,4.7% of I2a1b, and 2.3% of J1.
- Uralic : 18.6% of N1c1
- Turkic : 9.3% of N1c2
Tatars
- Germanic : 9.5% of I1, 7% of R1b-U106, 3.9% of R1a-M458 and 1% I2-M223
- Slavic : 6.8% of R1a-CTS1211 and 1% of R1a-Z282
- Balkanic : 8% of G2a3, 7.9% of J2a, 4% of J2b, 3% of E-M78, 2% of I2a1b and 1% of J1.
- Uralic : 15.3% of N1c1
- Turkic : 10.8% of N1c2
- Mongolian : 3.9% of C, 2% of Q, 1% of O
The main difference between the three groups is that only the Chuvash and Tatars carry about 10% of Turkic N1c2, which explains why they are Turkic speakers today. The Tatars also have 7% of Mongolian Y-DNA, surely an heritage of Genghis Khan's empire.
My hypothesis is that one group of Carpathian Goths migrated east across Ukraine and settled west of the Volga, where they mixed with the local Uralic (N1c1 + R1a-Z93) speakers, whose language they adopted. In the 7th century, the Bulgars, Turkic speakers from Central Asia, invaded the Volga region and created the Kingdom of Volga Bulgaria in what is now Chuvashia and Tatarstan. This explains why only the Chuvash and Tatars mixed with them and became Turkic speakers. The Mordovians, who lived further west, with no connection to the Volga, remained Uralic speakers.
Goths or Swedish Vikings ?
The only other possibility for the presence of Germanic haplogroup in Middle Volga ethnic groups would be an introgression from the Varangian Vikings from Sweden. The Goths having also originated in Sweden, the haplogroup proportion would be very similar. In both cases we could expect I1 to be the largest haplogroup, followed by R1b-U106, which is exactly the case here.
The Varangians followed rivers on their drakars, including the Volga, which is why it cannot be excluded that they also contributed to some of the Germanic male lineages in the region, especially in Tatarstan, which is the region with the highest percentage of Germanic Y-DNA (24% among the Tuymazinsky Tatars). However there is no record (to my knowledge) of the Vikings ever coming to Mordovia, which is not adjacent to the Volga or any major river. I would therefore think that the Goths are the only candidate in their case. The Chuvash and Tatars may have complementary Gothic and Varangian Y-DNA.
I checked the I1 subclades in the FTDNA projects for Mordovia and Tatarstan, and found the following subclades (N.B. no I1 subclade tested for Chuvashia).
- Mordovians: Z59, Z60, Z63 (2x), Z140 (2x), CTS743
- Tatars : Z63 (2x)
All these subclades are continental Germanic. Not a single one of them belong to the Scandinavian/Viking L22 branch. In fact they are only two branches : the West Germanic Z59>Z60>Z140 (CTS743 is a side branch of Z140, downstream of Z73) and the continental Z63. I wouldn't draw any conclusion from only two Tatar samples, but the Mordovian samples certainly do not look Viking in origin, and all the subclades present are compatible with a Gothic origin. Z63 in particular looks overwhelmingly Gothic in origin, being present in Ukraine, the Balkans, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Z140 has also been found in Spain. Only Z73>CTS743 could be of Viking origin, as it is essentially found in Norway, Sweden and Finland. But it could also represent the branch of the Goths who remained in Scandinavia.
1) Uralic speakers with over 50% of Uralic Y-DNA (N1c1): Mari, Komi, Udmurts and Besermyans.
2) Uralic speakers with only a little bit of Uralic Y-DNA, but a lot of Germanic, Slavic and Balkanic Y-DNA : Mordvins (aka Mordovians).
3) Turkic speakers with a little Uralic and Turkic (N1c2) Y-DNA, and otherwise mostly Proto-Indo-European Y-DNA (R1a and R1b) : Bashkirs.
4) Turkic speakers with a little Uralic and Turkic (N1c2) Y-DNA, but a lot of Germanic, Slavic and Balkanic Y-DNA : Chuvash and Tatars.
What piqued my interest is the unique blend of Germanic, Slavic and Balkanic lineages found among the Mordovians, Chuvash and Tatars, who live side by side west of the Middle Volga region. This immediately reminded me of the genetic blend presumably brought by the Goths to Italy and Spain as originally discussed here and summarised here.
The combination of Germanic (I1, I2a2a, R1b-U106), Slavic (R1aCTS1211, R1a-Z282 and R1a-M458) and Balkanic (E-M78, G2a3, I2a1b, J1, J2a, J2b) lineages suggests that the Mordovians, Chuvash and Tatars could be descended from a branch of the 4th-century Goths from the Chernyakhov culture in Romania, Moldova and western Ukraine. This is further corroborated by the very strong similarity in names between Moldova and Mordova. Mordovians could therefore be Uralicized Moldovans.
The Near Eastern haplogroups do look as if they had come straight from the Balkans and Carpathians because:
- The dominant haplogroup is E-M78 (including E-V13 confirmed from FTDNA projects), not the Middle Eastern E-M34, which is completely absent.
- About half of haplogroup J2 is the Balkanic J2b. The roughly 50-50 proportion between J2a and J2b is only found in Southeast Europe.
- Most of the G2a is the (Indo-)European G2a3b1, not Middle Eastern subclades.
- There is some I2a1b too, which could either be Slavic or Balkanic.
- J1 is the rarest haplogroup, contrarily to the Middle East where it is the second most common after J2a.
Trofimova et al. 2015 only tests about 50 samples from each ethnicity, which is not very representative in terms of frequencies, but gives a very good idea of what haplogroups are present in each group.
Mordovians
- Germanic : 3.4% of I1, 3.4% of R1b-U106 (aka M405 or S21), 1.7% I2-M223 and 1.7% of R1a-M458
- Slavic : 32% of R1a-CTS1211 and 1.7% of R1a-Z282
- Balkanic : 10.2% of E-M78, 10.2% of J2b, 5.1% of J2a, 3.4% of G2a3b1, and 1.7% of J*.
- Uralic : 10% of N1c1
- Turkic : 0% of N1c2
Chuvash
- Germanic : 7% of I1, and 4.7% of R1a-M458
- Slavic : 18.6% of R1a-CTS1211 and 2.3% of R1a-Z282
- Balkanic : 14% of E-M78, 9.3% of J2a, 4.7% of J2b,4.7% of I2a1b, and 2.3% of J1.
- Uralic : 18.6% of N1c1
- Turkic : 9.3% of N1c2
Tatars
- Germanic : 9.5% of I1, 7% of R1b-U106, 3.9% of R1a-M458 and 1% I2-M223
- Slavic : 6.8% of R1a-CTS1211 and 1% of R1a-Z282
- Balkanic : 8% of G2a3, 7.9% of J2a, 4% of J2b, 3% of E-M78, 2% of I2a1b and 1% of J1.
- Uralic : 15.3% of N1c1
- Turkic : 10.8% of N1c2
- Mongolian : 3.9% of C, 2% of Q, 1% of O
The main difference between the three groups is that only the Chuvash and Tatars carry about 10% of Turkic N1c2, which explains why they are Turkic speakers today. The Tatars also have 7% of Mongolian Y-DNA, surely an heritage of Genghis Khan's empire.
My hypothesis is that one group of Carpathian Goths migrated east across Ukraine and settled west of the Volga, where they mixed with the local Uralic (N1c1 + R1a-Z93) speakers, whose language they adopted. In the 7th century, the Bulgars, Turkic speakers from Central Asia, invaded the Volga region and created the Kingdom of Volga Bulgaria in what is now Chuvashia and Tatarstan. This explains why only the Chuvash and Tatars mixed with them and became Turkic speakers. The Mordovians, who lived further west, with no connection to the Volga, remained Uralic speakers.
Goths or Swedish Vikings ?
The only other possibility for the presence of Germanic haplogroup in Middle Volga ethnic groups would be an introgression from the Varangian Vikings from Sweden. The Goths having also originated in Sweden, the haplogroup proportion would be very similar. In both cases we could expect I1 to be the largest haplogroup, followed by R1b-U106, which is exactly the case here.
The Varangians followed rivers on their drakars, including the Volga, which is why it cannot be excluded that they also contributed to some of the Germanic male lineages in the region, especially in Tatarstan, which is the region with the highest percentage of Germanic Y-DNA (24% among the Tuymazinsky Tatars). However there is no record (to my knowledge) of the Vikings ever coming to Mordovia, which is not adjacent to the Volga or any major river. I would therefore think that the Goths are the only candidate in their case. The Chuvash and Tatars may have complementary Gothic and Varangian Y-DNA.
I checked the I1 subclades in the FTDNA projects for Mordovia and Tatarstan, and found the following subclades (N.B. no I1 subclade tested for Chuvashia).
- Mordovians: Z59, Z60, Z63 (2x), Z140 (2x), CTS743
- Tatars : Z63 (2x)
All these subclades are continental Germanic. Not a single one of them belong to the Scandinavian/Viking L22 branch. In fact they are only two branches : the West Germanic Z59>Z60>Z140 (CTS743 is a side branch of Z140, downstream of Z73) and the continental Z63. I wouldn't draw any conclusion from only two Tatar samples, but the Mordovian samples certainly do not look Viking in origin, and all the subclades present are compatible with a Gothic origin. Z63 in particular looks overwhelmingly Gothic in origin, being present in Ukraine, the Balkans, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Z140 has also been found in Spain. Only Z73>CTS743 could be of Viking origin, as it is essentially found in Norway, Sweden and Finland. But it could also represent the branch of the Goths who remained in Scandinavia.